BTCUSD: Weekly chart update

2019年5月18日

It seems we are headed down from here. I recently updated my previous charts with my long exit, but I didn't publish my short trade idea which was reserved for my clients. We went short @ 8053 average, and are looking to cover and flip long once sentiment resets.

Charts imply we have to wait for 9 weeks roughly, and likely head lower to test support. Recent events lead to a significant decline after almost everyone flipped bullish at the top (business as usual).

It was a popular idea that Bakkt would set precedent for the SEC to change their stance on the risks associated with a Bitcoin ETF, and thus would end up approving the Bitwise ETF proposal on the 16th. The SEC poured ice water in bulls' enthusiasm delaying the decision by 45 days, which paved the way for a short trade.

Technically speaking, this aligns nicely with the long term chart needing one more 2-month bar hitting 6400+- to form a large enough accumulation pattern before the next '1000 year bull run' in crypto starts. This signal (if it does trigger) would occur by September-October 2019, if the chart forms the patterns I anticipate. For now it remains in the realm of possibility but not yet a confirmed forecast. I'll be trading the daily and weekly swings with no bias until then.

Best of luck,

Ivan Labrie.

2019年5月19日

注释

I covered my first short @ 7746 from 8053 seeing last night's rapid ascent. It seems bulls insist on thinking the etf approval will occur soon but it doesn't make sense, sentiment and technicals imply we will go lower/sideways, and most likely retest 6400 at some point between July or August.

We can't move too far above that level, logically. Odds of not retesting 6400 are slim. It would end up breaking the long term patterns that the bull market depends on which would be weird.

It appears traders bought in advance if tomorrow's TV appearance by Barry Silbert on TV, and / or betting on ETF approval odds increasing due to crypto mom talking her usual talk at a conference (again). I don't think things changed enough to warrant more upside and sentiment is too elevated, so we will go back down. There's a lot of time between now and July-August, so, a slow grind decline with a lot of whipsaws is the way it'll be.
Patience and HODL cash, or be nimble to fade rallies and take profits quickly on dips... I'm in cash for now. No rush to buy, we will get a chance to buy at 6480 or lower.

2019年5月27日

交易开始