Am I making a big mistake?
已更新
This is a very brief update.
I am still in my long position, holding it on x2.3 leverage, and with no stop loss. Although I strive for better risk management within my actions, in this particular case I have decided that due to the low leverage that I have initially chosen and the type of trade (position trading in this case) I would risk my whole position leaving the liquidation open.
Now with that said, I am posting this bearish outlook, that has three main factors
1) I don't think we have really tested the 0.382 Fibonacci level
2) Ichimoku cloud takes an interesting reversal within the next couple of days.
3) Extremely strong price action in up to the mid 6XXX area
My liquidation price is at exactly $6520.5 USD.
Expectation 1:
In the following days we drop around the Ichimoku cloud and reverse, but still being lower than 9K ( my entry is ~9,3K USD).
This could give us several hundred, we would still be in 8.8K - 8.9K area. However not enough for a bull trend.
Expectation 2:
We do not respect the Ichimoku and we go as low as the 0.382 level, to test it again as the last time we were technically not there (last time I mean in 23/11/2019), where we missed it with around $80 USD.
This may complete the trend and we could see a bullish structure forming afterward, bringing us to at least the current price (we are now in the ~0.5 level). From there, I cannot tell, my experience with trading and analysis of markets is too short to be able to have an idea. I would be comfortable to see a surpassing of the current price levels if that is the case and maybe testing the 9.5K to 10K levels then.
Expectation 3:
Due to the massive sell pressure, we have at the moment, and the sentiment being bearish again, we may just pass through the above mentioned possible support levels, and go directly to the last strong price action region, at between 6 and 6.8K. While this inevitably means my order would most likely be liquidated, I am still comfortable due to the small capital on the position.
My personal opinion is that we would not go below that level, but we may stay there for a while, months maybe even up to the halving event. (BTW I don't think this one would give us a massive boost in the price, long story short, we have almost no data points to check the validity of this theory, the industry is much more complicated and we have things like paper BTC on the futures markets, so even if fundamentally it seems logical, really chances are price would go wherever price wants to go, if u know what I mean, and its still okay as you could still make so much in the long run anyway).
But according to the initial reason for this update, we are going down, may not be strong and may not be for several months, but we are going down.
Concerns :
I have not applied my trading plan properly, as mentioned previously, the long position is not secured with stop losses. This is a really really bad, but consciously taken decision and I only do that due to the extremely low leverage, comfortable position size and the mentioned levels above that may act like a short to midterm support.
I am still in my long position, holding it on x2.3 leverage, and with no stop loss. Although I strive for better risk management within my actions, in this particular case I have decided that due to the low leverage that I have initially chosen and the type of trade (position trading in this case) I would risk my whole position leaving the liquidation open.
Now with that said, I am posting this bearish outlook, that has three main factors
1) I don't think we have really tested the 0.382 Fibonacci level
2) Ichimoku cloud takes an interesting reversal within the next couple of days.
3) Extremely strong price action in up to the mid 6XXX area
My liquidation price is at exactly $6520.5 USD.
Expectation 1:
In the following days we drop around the Ichimoku cloud and reverse, but still being lower than 9K ( my entry is ~9,3K USD).
This could give us several hundred, we would still be in 8.8K - 8.9K area. However not enough for a bull trend.
Expectation 2:
We do not respect the Ichimoku and we go as low as the 0.382 level, to test it again as the last time we were technically not there (last time I mean in 23/11/2019), where we missed it with around $80 USD.
This may complete the trend and we could see a bullish structure forming afterward, bringing us to at least the current price (we are now in the ~0.5 level). From there, I cannot tell, my experience with trading and analysis of markets is too short to be able to have an idea. I would be comfortable to see a surpassing of the current price levels if that is the case and maybe testing the 9.5K to 10K levels then.
Expectation 3:
Due to the massive sell pressure, we have at the moment, and the sentiment being bearish again, we may just pass through the above mentioned possible support levels, and go directly to the last strong price action region, at between 6 and 6.8K. While this inevitably means my order would most likely be liquidated, I am still comfortable due to the small capital on the position.
My personal opinion is that we would not go below that level, but we may stay there for a while, months maybe even up to the halving event. (BTW I don't think this one would give us a massive boost in the price, long story short, we have almost no data points to check the validity of this theory, the industry is much more complicated and we have things like paper BTC on the futures markets, so even if fundamentally it seems logical, really chances are price would go wherever price wants to go, if u know what I mean, and its still okay as you could still make so much in the long run anyway).
But according to the initial reason for this update, we are going down, may not be strong and may not be for several months, but we are going down.
Concerns :
I have not applied my trading plan properly, as mentioned previously, the long position is not secured with stop losses. This is a really really bad, but consciously taken decision and I only do that due to the extremely low leverage, comfortable position size and the mentioned levels above that may act like a short to midterm support.
交易开始
Expectation 1 proves to be valid. Price lower than $7890 USD would confirm a continuation to Expectation 2 between 7.2K and 7.7K.
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