First, I wish to thank you for reading this post..I also wish to thank all of my supporters and followers, here on Trading View, on Twitter, followers of my YouTube LIVE STREAM, and especially my Crypto World News family...thank you.
In my previous Full Analysis we followed BTC down to the bottom which I called at many prices down to 7k nearly on the dime...A lot was learned along the way. For those of you new to my publications I highly recommend reading my BTC $7000 Full Analysis which explains the basic methodology in which I use technical analysis tools and indicators, although I have learned a few more since that first post...it is a long read with more than a few charts, but at the end of it you will come out with a better understanding of how meticulous I am when charting BTC.
Now, as for the change of heart...
As previously mentioned in the two prior crashes of BTC price crossed below the 233-Day Moving average as well as the RSI breaking below 20 on the 1Day chart...while in this correction the RSI did not go below 20 on the 1Day, but the price did break well below the 233-Day MA...this was not what swayed me as I was adamant about still being in correction until the RSI hit the target...
In the 1Week chart above we can clearly see that BTC has gone through an ABC from the ATH in December, followed by a long-legged green doji and two bullish Heikin Ashi candles...
And a look at the 1Month also shows positive signs, besides that fact that it seems as though that was on the top of Wave 1 at the December All Time High...
This was not all that led me to change my mind from this being an ABCDE correction (snapshot from 2/26/18 below)...this was not convincing enough...
...it was when I look at the 12Hour chart that I decided a reversal may have been in the works.
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Now before anyone thinks that I have looked at the work of other technical analysts that swayed me to now make this post, I would like to point out the time stamp on the charts above...and if you have been a follower you would know that I, for the most part, do not read or watch the TA of some of the famous names out there, for two specific reasons:
1. I do not like for my perspective or judgement to be skewed by the work of another before finalizing my position...
2. I do not prefer analysts that consistently hedge their calls by stating multiple outcomes. I believe that if you are going to post something you should be ready to back it up, stick to it, and be willing to accept being wrong if the outcome is otherwise. I believe in holding oneself accountable for what is said and done, myself above all others.
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After seeing two trend lines broken (and a third on 3/2/18) I started to scratch out my projection for a bullish reversal in the chart above...and in that 1Day chart you can clearly see the MACD, RSI, and Elliott Wave Oscillator forming the ascending half of a Cup...as seen in the chart below...
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...and in the early morning hours of 3/3/18, after seeing 3 Inverse Head & Shoulders, all doubt left me...
As of the morning of 3/3/18, we have been watching for the completion of Wave 5 of Wave 1 of Primary Wave 3 within the Supercycle Impulse Wave that began at 5811...and as of this writing BTC is well above the most recent trend line, falling just short of hitting 11500..An ABCDE retracement is what the pattern would predict from here...having broken 3 Major trend lines on as many attempts.
In my previous Full Analysis we followed BTC down to the bottom which I called at many prices down to 7k nearly on the dime...A lot was learned along the way. For those of you new to my publications I highly recommend reading my BTC $7000 Full Analysis which explains the basic methodology in which I use technical analysis tools and indicators, although I have learned a few more since that first post...it is a long read with more than a few charts, but at the end of it you will come out with a better understanding of how meticulous I am when charting BTC.
Now, as for the change of heart...
As previously mentioned in the two prior crashes of BTC price crossed below the 233-Day Moving average as well as the RSI breaking below 20 on the 1Day chart...while in this correction the RSI did not go below 20 on the 1Day, but the price did break well below the 233-Day MA...this was not what swayed me as I was adamant about still being in correction until the RSI hit the target...
In the 1Week chart above we can clearly see that BTC has gone through an ABC from the ATH in December, followed by a long-legged green doji and two bullish Heikin Ashi candles...
And a look at the 1Month also shows positive signs, besides that fact that it seems as though that was on the top of Wave 1 at the December All Time High...
This was not all that led me to change my mind from this being an ABCDE correction (snapshot from 2/26/18 below)...this was not convincing enough...
...it was when I look at the 12Hour chart that I decided a reversal may have been in the works.
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Now before anyone thinks that I have looked at the work of other technical analysts that swayed me to now make this post, I would like to point out the time stamp on the charts above...and if you have been a follower you would know that I, for the most part, do not read or watch the TA of some of the famous names out there, for two specific reasons:
1. I do not like for my perspective or judgement to be skewed by the work of another before finalizing my position...
2. I do not prefer analysts that consistently hedge their calls by stating multiple outcomes. I believe that if you are going to post something you should be ready to back it up, stick to it, and be willing to accept being wrong if the outcome is otherwise. I believe in holding oneself accountable for what is said and done, myself above all others.
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Good morning Cryptopians!
BTC is making another attempt at breaking 11600...II expect this to be broken within the next 24 hours...All signals and indicators are pointing toward bullish momentum building...
BTC is making another attempt at breaking 11600...II expect this to be broken within the next 24 hours...All signals and indicators are pointing toward bullish momentum building...
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BTC hit 11600 and now is making a run, a slow run, to 11700...
BTC hit 11600 and now is making a run, a slow run, to 11700...
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BTC has been fooling analysts as to what wave exactly she is in, including me...After the recent drop I now see, in the 4Hour chart above, that BTC is in an ABCDE Wave 4...Wave 5 will take BTC to 12000...After which will come an ABC Wave 2 of Primary Wave 3. Primary Wave 3 is set to end at 17000.
This 15Min chart has the end of the ABCDE ending at 11200.
This 15Min chart has the end of the ABCDE ending at 11200.
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Thank you Binance and all the weak hands for panic selling BTC right out of trend...we will need to wait and see if BTC recovers above 10500, before anything can be projected.
Thank you Binance and all the weak hands for panic selling BTC right out of trend...we will need to wait and see if BTC recovers above 10500, before anything can be projected.
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---------------------UPDATE------------------------------
This is a short one...I have received many messages asking if I have changed my position, or if I am still bullish on BTC, or if I am reverting back to my previous analysis of BTC going down to 6/5/4/3k or lower...to all of this I say that my position remains unchanged. I am not so easily swayed by what should be expected reversals- no matter how manipulated they may be.
“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”. ― Warren Buffett
"Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again". - Jesse Livermore, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
With that...I present BTC on a 1Day chart...
This chart shows every Primary, Cycle, Supercycle, and Grand Supercycle wave of which BTC has completed. The yellow vertical lines depict every Cycle end denoting the completion of a correction with Price and RSI bottoming out. While the price of BTC did come down, upon completion of a Primary impulse wave at after beginning of a new Cycle, at no time did it retest the low at which the RSI bottomed. Boxed areas contain each Grand Supercycle (pink lines). In the first Grand Supercycle we see BTC Supercycle waves (green lines)are tight and compact; The second box shows elongated Supercycle waves with late parabolic rises; and the third Supercycle box shows BTC Supercycle waves (I) and (II) as compact, a parabolic wave (III), and wave (IV) comprised of a clear Primary 1-2-3-4-5.
Returning to the vertical lines, each coincides with the end of a correction- Price and RSI bottoming out. Now, while I am still aligned with my initial analysis of the correction being over, never did I say that prices could not come down from the highs of our latest Primary impulse wave, which in my analysis would be constituted as Primary Wave 1 in a new Supercycle, which is the beginning of a new Grand Supercycle (aqua line at top).
This is a short one...I have received many messages asking if I have changed my position, or if I am still bullish on BTC, or if I am reverting back to my previous analysis of BTC going down to 6/5/4/3k or lower...to all of this I say that my position remains unchanged. I am not so easily swayed by what should be expected reversals- no matter how manipulated they may be.
“Be Fearful When Others Are Greedy and Greedy When Others Are Fearful”. ― Warren Buffett
"Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again". - Jesse Livermore, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
With that...I present BTC on a 1Day chart...
This chart shows every Primary, Cycle, Supercycle, and Grand Supercycle wave of which BTC has completed. The yellow vertical lines depict every Cycle end denoting the completion of a correction with Price and RSI bottoming out. While the price of BTC did come down, upon completion of a Primary impulse wave at after beginning of a new Cycle, at no time did it retest the low at which the RSI bottomed. Boxed areas contain each Grand Supercycle (pink lines). In the first Grand Supercycle we see BTC Supercycle waves (green lines)are tight and compact; The second box shows elongated Supercycle waves with late parabolic rises; and the third Supercycle box shows BTC Supercycle waves (I) and (II) as compact, a parabolic wave (III), and wave (IV) comprised of a clear Primary 1-2-3-4-5.
Returning to the vertical lines, each coincides with the end of a correction- Price and RSI bottoming out. Now, while I am still aligned with my initial analysis of the correction being over, never did I say that prices could not come down from the highs of our latest Primary impulse wave, which in my analysis would be constituted as Primary Wave 1 in a new Supercycle, which is the beginning of a new Grand Supercycle (aqua line at top).
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-------------------------UPDATE-----------------------
BTC has just done something it has never done before...touched down below the 233-Day Moving Average in the same year...this is literally uncharted territory.
BTC has just done something it has never done before...touched down below the 233-Day Moving Average in the same year...this is literally uncharted territory.
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---------------------------------UPDATE----------------------------------
So, it has been a rough few days for many...we've lost a lot of weak hands...friends have stopped texting...twitter is in hibernation...all of the sudden, one week to the next, the loud-mouthed bulls have all of the sudden turned flag-waiving bears...
For those still around, I have not changed my position since making this initial post, and it remains the same. It is evident in my youtube live stream and twitter account. BTC is moving up from here...
I have been keeping track all weekend, taking snapshots on my charts (and the famous twitter personalities that keep hedging their positions ;) )...and I will post them now.
Last we checked BTC had done something it had never before, broke the 233-Day Moving Average...but everything else it was doing, it had done many, many times before...
Close to the close of the day on Saturday 3/10/18, BTC had another significant drop falling below 9k...but it was after deep, long meditation, I spoke with my close friend and guide Leonardo Pisano Bigollo (aka Fibonnaci), and he reassured me- the lines do not lie, trust in history, for it well ever repeat itself...and I returned with this 1Day chart above...
Zoomed in to the 4Hour, we can see he is right...the Fibonnaci sequence is present everywhere on this planet, you can not escape its presence, nor its truth...
So, I trust it...
...and that trust pays off...
So where is this leading to? And how is it that I am still bullish, the seemingly only underdog out there, while the sky is falling and everyone is running for the hills, seeking refuge from the onslaught of Bull-traps and Bear-flags that BTC is hurling at everyone? Lets look back in time first, using my Grand Supercycle chart...
July 15, 2017 and September 14, 2017
August 2, 2016
March 5, 2016
August 24, 2015...before going parabolic
April 26, 2015
These are points in BTC historical data that have a correction ending followed by a distinct impulse wave up, and hard sell-off before progressing forward with a new Cycle...
And how about today, March 11, 2018?
Yes, we have seen six green daily candles in a row...but as the Grand Supercycle chart in my previous update shows, this correction is not like the rest- but it IS JUST LIKE THE REST.
So, it has been a rough few days for many...we've lost a lot of weak hands...friends have stopped texting...twitter is in hibernation...all of the sudden, one week to the next, the loud-mouthed bulls have all of the sudden turned flag-waiving bears...
For those still around, I have not changed my position since making this initial post, and it remains the same. It is evident in my youtube live stream and twitter account. BTC is moving up from here...
I have been keeping track all weekend, taking snapshots on my charts (and the famous twitter personalities that keep hedging their positions ;) )...and I will post them now.
Last we checked BTC had done something it had never before, broke the 233-Day Moving Average...but everything else it was doing, it had done many, many times before...
So, I trust it...
...and that trust pays off...
So where is this leading to? And how is it that I am still bullish, the seemingly only underdog out there, while the sky is falling and everyone is running for the hills, seeking refuge from the onslaught of Bull-traps and Bear-flags that BTC is hurling at everyone? Lets look back in time first, using my Grand Supercycle chart...
These are points in BTC historical data that have a correction ending followed by a distinct impulse wave up, and hard sell-off before progressing forward with a new Cycle...
And how about today, March 11, 2018?
Yes, we have seen six green daily candles in a row...but as the Grand Supercycle chart in my previous update shows, this correction is not like the rest- but it IS JUST LIKE THE REST.
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"Whatever happens in the stock market today has happened before and will happen again". - Jesse Livermore, Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
"The reader will discover that high volume is helpful is helpful in anticipating reversals...The practical trader, by ear, eye or chart, knows full well how often a stock or the general market does quite the opposite of what the general public expects and should expect it to do. This is merely a point of insider psychology. The public is generally wrong in its forecast because it would be difficult for anyone to make money if prices always did the obvious thing. The insider is in business to make money, but he cannot make money by following the crowd and doing the obvious thing. He makes money by dealing on the opposite side of the public." - Richard W. Schabacker
I am no insider, but I certainly never follow the crowd...here is why...
First, let's look at who has been controlling the market, and when:
While the general public and market are jumping out and panic selling, the players are accumulating on the way, fixing their dollar cost average nicely...
As the accumulation distribution theory plays out...the market becomes depressed and indecisive at 5800, "is this the bottom?..."but 7k was supposed to be bottom?..."is crypto dead?"...then a whale buys $400 million worth of BTC and gets the party started again...
And then we switch to regular candles...
"...technical action reminds us that the market is not going to do the obvious." Richard W. Schabacker
So where did the massive volume in selling come from? Buying was not done in the same manner, so why such a increase? Accumulation/Distribution Theory...
The massive sell off creates the illusion that the bottom is far, far, far from here, and that only a fool would buy into this...but it is not a Bull trap...since ALL of the BULLS have become BEARS and they are worried about changing their position, again.
It is a trap...but its not for the Bulls...
Volume increasing...
Here I have added in my projected Volume for the coming weeks (above).
This is where we are as of this post:
This is where we are headed:
Happy Trading!
"The reader will discover that high volume is helpful is helpful in anticipating reversals...The practical trader, by ear, eye or chart, knows full well how often a stock or the general market does quite the opposite of what the general public expects and should expect it to do. This is merely a point of insider psychology. The public is generally wrong in its forecast because it would be difficult for anyone to make money if prices always did the obvious thing. The insider is in business to make money, but he cannot make money by following the crowd and doing the obvious thing. He makes money by dealing on the opposite side of the public." - Richard W. Schabacker
I am no insider, but I certainly never follow the crowd...here is why...
First, let's look at who has been controlling the market, and when:
While the general public and market are jumping out and panic selling, the players are accumulating on the way, fixing their dollar cost average nicely...
As the accumulation distribution theory plays out...the market becomes depressed and indecisive at 5800, "is this the bottom?..."but 7k was supposed to be bottom?..."is crypto dead?"...then a whale buys $400 million worth of BTC and gets the party started again...
And then we switch to regular candles...
So where did the massive volume in selling come from? Buying was not done in the same manner, so why such a increase? Accumulation/Distribution Theory...
The massive sell off creates the illusion that the bottom is far, far, far from here, and that only a fool would buy into this...but it is not a Bull trap...since ALL of the BULLS have become BEARS and they are worried about changing their position, again.
It is a trap...but its not for the Bulls...
Volume increasing...
This is where we are as of this post:
This is where we are headed:
Happy Trading!
评论:
"Yes, we have seen six green daily candles in a row...but as the Grand Supercycle chart in my previous update shows, this correction is not like the rest- but it IS JUST LIKE THE REST."
TYPO: Should read "six RED candles"...ma bad.
TYPO: Should read "six RED candles"...ma bad.
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This was the true Trend Line...
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------------------------------UPDATE---------------------------
It has been a long, rough week...sorry for the delay in updates...Lets go!
Where we last left we were watching for the sideways movement that began on the 9th to continue with another impulse wave up, which would have taken BTC to 10300...
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When BTC finally broke through the wedge, it proceeded to drop to a new low...
24 Hours later the bears had fully taken control bringin BTC well below the 233-Day Moving Average (orange line)...all of this paints a bleak picture with the bears seemingly winning out over the bulls...but...
...I was looking for the drop to stop at 8100 on 3/14/18...which it did not...it did so at 7666...
...and, as seen in this 30Min chart, has continued to rise since then
In this 4Hour chart we see the retracement levels at which a Wave 2 can move down to, with BTC having stopped, currently at the 0.618...while it can very well still go down the 0.764, or 0.84 before it is invalidated, lets look at the RSI...
This 4Hour chart shows Bullish Divergence with the price falling to a lower low with the RSI remaining above the previous low...
www.tradingview.com/chart/9LoSACr2/
Looking at Volume we can see there is a significant increase, both selling and buying, than there has been not just in weeks but also from 5800 up to 9000...the Market Movers are trying very hard to push the bearishness down everyone's throats, and they have succeeded to an extent but there is a lot of buy volume reacting...Buy volume increasing, Sell volume decreasing...the market is coming into equilibrium, slowly but surely...
How about the Moving Average Convergence Divergence...aka MACD?
Bullish Divergence
Elliot Wave Oscillator?
Bullish Divergence
6Hour
8Hour
12Hour
18Hour
We are just waiting for the Daily to catch up now...
All of this does not mean that the following would not be possible:
But with Bullish Divergence present on so many time frames, after it being not existent, I am still strong in the the conviction of my analysis- strike that- I am Bullish.
"Once a major trend is established it must be assumed, and quite logically, that such trend will continue until it is reversed...{Trends} should be followed until a reversal is fairly defined. That, of course, is the rub. Detecting reversal formations is not easy, for there are many minor reversals which mislead the amateur and even the experienced student...A major trend seldom reverses itself suddenly or without warning...Signals of reversal are generally given, therefore, for some time previous to the actual turn. The most important signal is the beginning of minor reversals, the slowing up pf the previous movement, perhaps a gradual rounding off of that movement." - Richard W. Schabacker
#lastrealbullalive
It has been a long, rough week...sorry for the delay in updates...Lets go!
www.tradingview.com/chart/9LoSACr2/
Looking at Volume we can see there is a significant increase, both selling and buying, than there has been not just in weeks but also from 5800 up to 9000...the Market Movers are trying very hard to push the bearishness down everyone's throats, and they have succeeded to an extent but there is a lot of buy volume reacting...Buy volume increasing, Sell volume decreasing...the market is coming into equilibrium, slowly but surely...
How about the Moving Average Convergence Divergence...aka MACD?
Elliot Wave Oscillator?
We are just waiting for the Daily to catch up now...
All of this does not mean that the following would not be possible:
But with Bullish Divergence present on so many time frames, after it being not existent, I am still strong in the the conviction of my analysis- strike that- I am Bullish.
"Once a major trend is established it must be assumed, and quite logically, that such trend will continue until it is reversed...{Trends} should be followed until a reversal is fairly defined. That, of course, is the rub. Detecting reversal formations is not easy, for there are many minor reversals which mislead the amateur and even the experienced student...A major trend seldom reverses itself suddenly or without warning...Signals of reversal are generally given, therefore, for some time previous to the actual turn. The most important signal is the beginning of minor reversals, the slowing up pf the previous movement, perhaps a gradual rounding off of that movement." - Richard W. Schabacker
#lastrealbullalive
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------------3/16/18 Afternoon UPDATE------------
In yesterdays update we saw that BTC was showing Bullish Divergence on nearly every large time interval chart, excluding the Daily...
...and we saw how that divergence led to significant rise in BTC 8400 before moving sideways (5Min chart above) until just after midnight...
BTC broke out of the wedge (1Min chart above) and continued sideways movement...
...until 9:15 am EST when it punched up to 8500 (above), certainly an interesting way to start a Friday.
We can see here, in this 1Hour chart, that momentum is in correlation with the rise in price after the bullish divergence.
As of this time, BTC is showing a bullish candle on the Daily, closing in on the 233-Day Moving Average (orange line), and increasing Buy Volume- there have not been consecutive Buy Volume days since 2/26/18...
From here we would like to see the Daily Candle close above 8700, putting it at the 233-Day MA, if not higher, and completing as much of the following pattern as possible before the close.
Update to this will be posted tonight. Happy Trading!
In yesterdays update we saw that BTC was showing Bullish Divergence on nearly every large time interval chart, excluding the Daily...
...and we saw how that divergence led to significant rise in BTC 8400 before moving sideways (5Min chart above) until just after midnight...
From here we would like to see the Daily Candle close above 8700, putting it at the 233-Day MA, if not higher, and completing as much of the following pattern as possible before the close.
Update to this will be posted tonight. Happy Trading!
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And once again, with just a few minutes left to close the daily candle the Bears push it right down to 8275....after seeing a high of 8600 on the day it was a poor effort by the market to take advantage of the momentum of the jump to 8500 this morning. Indecisiveness in the market is holding BTC currently in this range...8080 needs to hold now...
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-----------------3/17/18 4 pm EST UPDATE --------------------
First I would like to clarify a chart in a previous update, since I did not do so then:
This 4Hour chart shows the Fibonacci Retracement levels most regarded for a Wave 2...although Wave 2 can retrace UP TO 99% of Wave 1- these are not my rules, nor did not invent them- if you are not aware of these Elliot Wave principles then I would suggest to do your own research (which everyone should be doing) and learn about them and confirm this for your own notes.
So, with my projection of this current, local, downtrend from 11800 being Wave 2, that means that the following are 100% POSSIBLE:
So, with that said...the update...
The following group of charts are all 23Hour interval, until noted otherwise. The reason for this is that the difference between what is seen on a 24hour chart is VERY different from that of a 23Hour- but it is not nearly the same with intervals from 4Hour to 23Hour where patterns can still be seen to be evolving. This is important because it goes back to the Schabacker quote in my last update- that signals of a reversal or shifts in momentum can been seen on the minor scale sometimes well before the major scale...
Continuing with the presence of Bullish Divergence, this chart shows that it has continued on the RSI during this drop from 9700 to our current price (as of this writing) of 7812...
Taking a look at just the MACD we can see that it is tightening closer to convergence, with Bullish Divergence showing, and the Histogram is rising closer to Zero...
Plotting two un-adjusted curves (pink and yellow)from the peaks of the MACD lines, from the highs of 11800 and 11600, we can see that they are approaching a convergence point...
Adding the RSI back in shows the divergence correlating with this convergence...
And the Elliot Wave Oscillator...
And when we overlay the 23Hour Candles over the MACD, we can clearly see the divergence on the MACD Histogram...and when the convergence would occur at this rate...
And with our Wave 2 Fibonacci Retracement...also added to the RSI, MACD, and EWO Histogram...
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Some more examples of Bullish Divergence present, NOW, on smaller time frames leading up to the major reversal:
5Min
15Min
30Min
1Hour
4Hour
8Hour
12Hour
18Hour
20Hour
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As for where I believe all of this is headed, it is in this 23Hour chart:
Happy Trading.
First I would like to clarify a chart in a previous update, since I did not do so then:
So, with my projection of this current, local, downtrend from 11800 being Wave 2, that means that the following are 100% POSSIBLE:
So, with that said...the update...
The following group of charts are all 23Hour interval, until noted otherwise. The reason for this is that the difference between what is seen on a 24hour chart is VERY different from that of a 23Hour- but it is not nearly the same with intervals from 4Hour to 23Hour where patterns can still be seen to be evolving. This is important because it goes back to the Schabacker quote in my last update- that signals of a reversal or shifts in momentum can been seen on the minor scale sometimes well before the major scale...
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Some more examples of Bullish Divergence present, NOW, on smaller time frames leading up to the major reversal:
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As for where I believe all of this is headed, it is in this 23Hour chart:
Happy Trading.
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23:59 Chart
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I welcome you to please follow me twitter.com/Juni0rLancaster for updates and charts not posted anywhere else
and
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Again thank you all for your support and encouragement, I love you all. Happy Trading!