BTCUSD - The FOMO is so thick, a chainsaw is required to cut it.

2017年8月4日

Stepping back a bit from Elliott Wave Analysis (yeah, I do that too, but there are so many other voices...), the Fear Of Missing Out (FOMO) radiates all over the BTCUSD charts. What my experience has been, is that the FOMO does not lead to sustainable breakouts. Key word: Sustainable.

It is most obvious on the Kraken data feed. It actually traded at an ATH, for a while, a few days back.



On the other charts from other exchanges, we can see this too. Depending which dots or data points are connected, all of the charts can display a rising wedge, a Bearish pattern leading to a breakdown. Should this happen, it may act to calm the BTC enthusiasm enough to establish a Sustainable bullish pattern that eventually leads to sustainable new highs, a the kick-off of Elliott Wave V for BTC.







A rising wedge is the perfect chainsaw therapy to cut through the FOMO and develop a sustain base from which a long run set of higher highs can be established.

2017年8月5日

注释

Why this post is now invalid. Anyone reading this Idea, please see my reply to TomPower below (copy embedded here) and see this link.

"In a nutshell, a large trader or group of traders, a whale amongst whales, decided to force the price higher. As I was watching 4 exchanges within TradingView, it became clear the dominant market leading the breakout was BitFinex.

There is public access to the BitFinex order book here: cryptowat.ch/bitfinex/btcusd/15m

What I had seen in the order book, from time to time, was the same Spoofing the article's author wrote about. At another exchange I trade on, and have carefully watched the order book of, it has also exhibited the same Spoofing activity. HUGE orders (thousands of BTC or 100's of thousands of ETH) near but not on the bid/ask, with closer in Big orders, intervening to block actual transaction on the spoofing order. They appear to reverse a pricing trend or to support/goose the trending price's directionality (to drive bids higher, or asks lower). Then they disappear, sometimes in minutes, sometimes in small time segments. Illegal, supposedly in US markets, but they still occur. Saw it rampant in equities when I was a portfolio manager. Algorithmic trading and API interfaces easily enable this activity.

bloomberg.com/quicktake/spoofing

bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-spoofing/ "