MagicPoopCannon

Way Too Early To Call The Bottom — BITCOIN! (BTC)

BITFINEX:BTCUSD   比特币/美元
Hi friends! Welcome to this update analysis on Bitcoin! Well, as you can see, yesterday's formation still appears to be a bear flag , as opposed to the clear looking V bottom formation seen on the LTC chart. Perhaps LTC has overreacted to the upside. Or, perhaps BTC             is under-reacting. Looking at the MACD , we can see that a bullish crossover has occurred, and buy-side volume is exploding on the chart, as the bulls try to form a bottom in the bear market. With that said, I do think there is a decent chance, that the bottom could be in. However, there is one major thing that I need to see, to feel very confident about that statement, and put more bullish money to work. I want to see BTC             break out above the downtrend channel , and particularly, I want to see it get above the "Heavy Resistance" level at the 50% retrace. Just above the current price action, is the 50 EMA (in orange.) It has been very resistive thus far, so it will be important to see how BTC             responds to the 50 EMA , after this bottoming attempt. If we surpass the 50, it would be an indication that the bulls have some real momentum. Structurally, however, the bears will maintain control until the downtrend channel and the heavy resistance are surpassed.

Recently, I've been seeing some feedback in my comment sections, from people who are questioning my bullish post in LTC, while still having bearish targets in BTC             and others. People were saying that it didn't make sense, and that it was stupid and so forth.

Well, here is the reasoning, which I've made very clear in all of my analyses. As I've stated, the targets that I produced on my charts, which were derived from measurements of structures, would only be reached if the respective structures retraced to 100% of their corrective potential. As you know, LTC reach the target. However, BTC             , ETH, XRP and others, did not yet reached their targets. I've always said that bearish structures don't always retrace to 100% of their potential. Those statements are publicly available in my previous posts, and that concept is common knowledge in technical analysis . Likewise, bullish structures don't always break out to 100% of the breakout potential. Sometimes they do, and they go even farther. The point is, with each chart, I was simply trying to illustrate the maximum downside potential, based on the structures created on the chart. The current bounce is nice, and it could definitely be a bottom in the bear market. Or, it could be a dead cat bounce, before this market swallows the bulls like chunks of chicken soup. Personally, I'm long, but with very tight stops. I have seen way too many bear markets pop, only to quickly reverse and destroy the bulls. There is immense damage on this chart, and the majority of the resistance is to the upside. Don't let a little bounce, blind you into thinking the coast is clear. If you want to be bullish , theoretically, it would probably would be wise to exercise caution in your trades. Personally, I won't be a hardcore bull, until we get back above the heavy resistance.

This has been your not-so-humble market wizard, droppin' knowledge like bombs in this place! Please follow, comment, like, and share on social media. Good luck trading everyone!

***This information is not a recommendation to buy or sell. It is to be used for educational purposes only.***

-MPC loves you-

-JD-
Capitulation possibly coming
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A drop happened but no capitulation or a major snap back rally. What’s your take? Going waaay lower?
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Looks like you were right...
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Looks like BTC is head down again. MPC just may get his target hit sooner than we expect.
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What do you call a tight stop on BTC? Do you correct for the market noise, the volatility? I guess your stops must be loose enough not to get stopped short
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Very helpful and reasonable. Thank you.
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So what would a potential bottom be? Green dotted trendline? Or just continuing down the pink channel of doom until breakout of the channel occurs?
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MaximBar userbeauty
@userbeauty, likely the red and solid one...
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userbeauty MaximBar
@MaximBar, thx! Didn't even see that one!
+1 回复
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