Summary: Overall dull right now but with a positive undertone,
still, at these levels. We look to buy from lower, closer to 7531
if touched or, if very lucky, on any sharp fast test of the lower
parallel which would also be viewed as an excellent buying
opportunity, should we be lucky enough to see it later in
China/London on Monday. Unlikely, but it's Bitcoin .
If unsuccesful from lower levels the next buy point will come
on a break above that upper parallel with stops under 7700.
Technicals Evolving - Still Positive at higher levels
Forever changing shape as it evolves, Bitcoin just can't attract enough buying power on a quiet weeknd to break above a
newly forming dynamic falling from the highs, which now forms a perfect parallel with its lower counterpart, still
picking out the lows perfectly. Finally, this large set of parallels feels perfect, unforced, more likely to be trustworthy.
Having raised the stop on the long from 7660 to 7700 in effort to get out with just 30 loss if 7717 gave way
overnight...was stopped out - and with an overnight low at 7672 had I not bothered to move the stop up, would still be
long. So annoying sometimes, but still believe it was the right idea, but wrong damn level. Should have left it alone. Such
are pitfalls of stops. But believe that with BItcoin , more than any other instrument or speculation, stops are essential. But
sometimes one pays a price for being overcautious. Deserved it.
So now, in super-light volumes Bitcoin is struggling to attract buyers and yesterday's line at 7717, having been rapidly
regained by the bulls early in London this morning, is now under pressure once more ...we can see that price has danced
around this line all weekend (the only accurate part of forecast for a frustrating weekend really, so far) and in
such a tight range that it's not even of use to day-traders now.
Strange how it's gone to sleep right on the dividing line at 7717 for last 30 minutes now. The freezer lid indeed. So if
it breaks below here it's likely to drift lower still, to 7630 and potentially back to 7531 again...so am not buying here, as
yesterday, because there is still that risk of further lazy declines from here. So far it's still in a large corrective
pattern, unwinding last week's surge from lows at 5645 to new high at 8000 by moving lazily sideways in the range that
occupies the same space that was rejected so strongly the last time Bitcoin made it to these heights. That's positive, so far.
But don't need to buy here, even if 7717 does prove to be significant again today. It could still get pushed lower - it just
doesn't feel as stong here today...so there are 3 possible buy points now: either from lower down if 7700 fails,
potentially close to 7531 or off the lower large parallel should there be a fast, sharp decline to test it at any point over the
next 24 hours or so. Unlikley right now, but it could potentially happen if we are very lucky. And if not, the 3rd
chance presesnts itself from higher up, needing a successful break above the larger parallel at any point later today or
tomorrow (more likely but it's Bitcoin , anything can happen.Repeat)
Stops will need to stay under 7700, looking for a move back up to 7980-8000 range, with lesser resistance at 7856 being a
likely spot for day trading bulls to take first profits. Looking to close out at 7980 if tested and then stand ready to go long
once more if 8020 is broken with stop under 7900. Any such break should attract momemtum players and swing traders as
well as day traders. It should be worth following, especially if we see or sense picking up too.
Downside looks limited at his point, particularly if 7717 continues to hold for the bulls. There is still a fair chance we
might see another test of 7531 afrter China opens later. If so look to buy here with stop 50 points lower.