BTC Long

2022年6月15日

So we are seeing my previous snapshot finishing (which TW didn't save for some reason).
BTC is heavily linked to s&p and tech stocks at the moment and the bloodbath affects it. However those have not finished, BTC already lost the weak hands and many hedgers.
We only have speculative hands left and buyers.

What is going to happen is that the ongoing crackdown on home ownership (new era gold) via taxes all over the world will lead a line of people looking for another highly sought for asset which is deflationary (limited supply), tangible, non-taxable and, most important, inalienable.

At the moment there is practically no "free lunch" left except for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies without central control.
You cannot invest into resources as they are behind too much red-tape and protectionism in any country.
Stock is heavy speculation with trust in business practice, bonds are dependant on governmental stability when a dude in another country can send it to a downward spiral due to midlife crisis.

So the only thing which is truly there is Bitcoin.
Despite being built on a non-very stable ground (internet) and dependant on governments permitting it, it still thrives and provides the necessary protection of ownership, fungibility.

Sure some will say that I'm being too optimistic or delusional, but I accurately predicted that during COVID:

• small business will start closing
  
• mid to high earning people will invest into property
  
• low mid to low earning people will stop investment into property
  
• companies will start buying more properties
  
• all of the above will be with "free" money
  
• this will lead to lowest home ownership and thus life satisfaction
  
• leads to job dissatisfaction
  
• low paid jobs become vacant
  
• leading to supply chain crumbling further
  

Frankly I did not expect the war to join the tandem so soon, I thought we have a few years to run at the end of pandemic, despite due to my heritage I should've known better (as Mr. Putin got cornered heavily).

My new points are:

• Russia exited the globalisation idea (basically shorting the whole investment and cutting ties).
  
• people get burned opening new businesses with after covid free money now at the second wave of expansion available with high interest loans only.
  
• inability to grow due to previous will require other capital where we either sell business, bankrupt or not expand.
  
• wave of foreclosures due to previous decisions and growing workforce losses (great resignation is a good squeeze point).
  
• tech crumbling because there is NO MORE GROWTH left and valuations get re-evaluated making major calls on all leverage across the board (cascades)
  
• China will show even worse performance (because Evergrande was the first call) while technically being the last lifeline of the current world order.
  
• War leads to huge cascade of shortages which affects already struck down lower class
  
• Increase in riots worldwide, but most important in USA.
  
• Possible collapse of nation unions worldwide
  
• Faltering of real estate as investment will lead to search for new investment asset, bitcoin is right there.
  

This is not orchestrated, shit goes to town because there is no other choice at this point because basing your economy on constant growth is unsustainable. Regulations, taxes, borders and other burdens made for gullible nationalistic people lead to governments assuming totalitarian control (failure of TTIP, COVID and now Russia quitting) all over the world to show their relevance, they will try to double down and it will result in global collapse because world works as a global free market with no rules, taxes or burdens. And governments at this point are just thugs with guns, well you can be a thug with gun too!

Disclaimer:
I'm not a libertarian. Governments are an important thug which is supposed to keep other thugs from attacking you, BUT with nuclear deterrent there is not need for such huge armies (thus Russian attack on Ukraine) and wages, this war shows people globally that they are overpaying for protection which was either never there or now there to show off (no offence to Ukrainians). Sure some will say "well you can't nuke anyone", well first thing - yes you can, and second thing - there are drones now and most likely satellite deterrents in the work (many leading countries piss on the space treaty and more will join).
And yes it is more complex but it would take me pages of writing and I'm too tired to do that, so if you have questions shoot.

Remember there is 8 billion consumers in the world. All you have to do to become a millionaire is get 1 penny from them.

2022年6月15日

注释

i'm long at this point.

Decoupling from tech stock will come this time.

And last but not least be safe everyone.

2022年6月15日

注释

This is the third downward monthly wick, I don't see it going lower than bollinger band and double support from previous support/resistance.

It will bounce now

2022年6月15日

注释

Ok new news coming
rbc.ru/economics/15/06/2022/62a993d49a794723f8643804?from=from_main_6

Russia wants to use crypto for export payments and potentially debt payments.

Basically they are not allowed to trade in Roubles - there's no interconnection between international systems.

They owe money. They need to pay, but can only send gold - which has issues.

So what is the option? Pay BTC. It's not likely it will get globally banned - too many private users will get axed and this might cause riots when you can't withdraw your crypto (and a lot of people will buy in on the news).

At this point regulation will come to BTC.

Oh and also I head about that iso20022 - that's a dead in the water idea for boomers, they just basically want SEPA for USA and thus same standard everywhere. Bitcoin and crypto was invented because SEPA sucks.

2022年11月21日

订单已取消

Seems like it is more depressing for crypto than I originally thought. It's going down the drain due to FTX and overall markets presenting better opportunity than scammy crypto exchanges so I'm cancelling this. I'm out of crypto since July because Bitstamp stole some as well