Things aren't looking pretty, we have here the 4H
BTCUSD
chart. After the failed breakout on 3/5 a bear flag is shown on the white trend line (bear pattern 1). This failed breakout created a double top created between 2/20 and 3/5, highlighted in yellow (Bear pattern 2). It is now forming a symmetric triangle shown in green, a sign of continuation of the bear trend (bear pattern 3). When we failed the breakout we went back into the overall descending channel shown in pink created from our 20K high a few months ago (Bear pattern 4). Volume has been decreasing steadily (bear pattern 5). RSI is around 45, oversold during this consolidation period (bear pattern 6). We have a descending channel on the MACD (bear pattern 7), as well as decreasing buy volume shown circled on the MACD (Bear pattern 8).
If there is a breakout out of the symmetric triangle, we may be able to reanalyze. If price breaks down hard through the current symmetric triangle as all signs are pointing towards we MAY have some support at 8492 at the .236 retracement level of the recent bearish swing. After that, we can potentially see some support at 8000, but if we do not bounce back hard from there, unfortunately it could look like we hit the bottom of our descending channel to the 5-6K range. Please let me know what you think.
In summary:
Bear pattern 1: Bear flag created from dip on 3/5, failed breakout.
Bear pattern 2: Double top created between 2/20 and 3/5
Bear pattern 3: Forming continuing symmetric triangle.
Bear pattern 4: Pierced and staying below descending channel .
Bear pattern 5: Decreasing volume .
Bear pattern 6: Oversold RSI .
Bear pattern 7: Descending channel on MACD .
Bear pattern 8: Decreasing buy volume on MACD .
BTCUSD
chart. After the failed breakout on 3/5 a bear flag is shown on the white trend line (bear pattern 1). This failed breakout created a double top created between 2/20 and 3/5, highlighted in yellow (Bear pattern 2). It is now forming a symmetric triangle shown in green, a sign of continuation of the bear trend (bear pattern 3). When we failed the breakout we went back into the overall descending channel shown in pink created from our 20K high a few months ago (Bear pattern 4). Volume has been decreasing steadily (bear pattern 5). RSI is around 45, oversold during this consolidation period (bear pattern 6). We have a descending channel on the MACD (bear pattern 7), as well as decreasing buy volume shown circled on the MACD (Bear pattern 8). If there is a breakout out of the symmetric triangle, we may be able to reanalyze. If price breaks down hard through the current symmetric triangle as all signs are pointing towards we MAY have some support at 8492 at the .236 retracement level of the recent bearish swing. After that, we can potentially see some support at 8000, but if we do not bounce back hard from there, unfortunately it could look like we hit the bottom of our descending channel to the 5-6K range. Please let me know what you think.
In summary:
Bear pattern 1: Bear flag created from dip on 3/5, failed breakout.
Bear pattern 2: Double top created between 2/20 and 3/5
Bear pattern 3: Forming continuing symmetric triangle.
Bear pattern 4: Pierced and staying below descending channel .
Bear pattern 5: Decreasing volume .
Bear pattern 6: Oversold RSI .
Bear pattern 7: Descending channel on MACD .
Bear pattern 8: Decreasing buy volume on MACD .
评论:
This was simple enough to predict. Now for where it will land, we may see some support at 7900-8000 range, then 7230. These are the .38 and .23 fib retracement levels of 11k to 5.9k. After that we can create a double bottom at 5.9. After that, it's capitulation!