More and more people are getting hooked up

Yesterday, we said the short-term trend reversal was not yet confirmed and laid out several conditions we wanted to see in order for it to be confirmed. Furthermore, we introduced a setup with a bullish bias above $22 314 and a bearish one below $21 454. A few hours later, the price broke above the resistance and soared more than 10%, reaching a new high since October 2022. Nevertheless, despite yesterday’s price action, we continue to think the rebound in Bitcoin does not represent a real “bull market.” In fact, we still maintain a bearish outlook beyond the short term. To confirm this assessment, we would like to see a lower volume (accompanying the price higher) in the second leg up than in the first one. As for the short-term, we would not be surprised to see the rally continue, especially if RSI breaks above 70 points and MACD strives to reverse (to the upside); though the inability of these indicators to follow through and sudden drop in volume will act as a warning sign. Therefore, we will closely monitor the price action in the following days and seek more clues as to where Bitcoin might head next. On the endnote, with so many people getting hooked up on this "bull market" narrative, the wild rebound makes a good case for a strong move down later on.


Illustration 1.01

Illustration 1.02 shows the hourly chart of BTCUSD. Yellow arrows point to the volume.

Technical analysis
Daily time frame = Neutral/Slightly bullish
Weekly time frame = Neutral

Illustration 1.02

Illustration 1.02 displays the hourly chart of BTCUSD. The yellow arrow indicates a bullish breakout above the previous peak.

Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.

DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.

交易开始:

Updated setup for the one we introduced before the price rise.

交易开始:

The setup remains valid.