Ready to exit short and enter countertrend long
已更新
In the last update I tightened the stop on the short and hinted at a countertrend long setup I was looking at. The reasons for the countertrend trade are the same reasons I decided to tighten the stop loss on the short:
First, the overextension signal from the indicator combined with todays forming reversal candle (1). This indicates that the downwards momentum is due for a reset.
Second, the flatness of the trend cloud (2) and the large distance between price and the trendcloud (taken from ichimoku). These two like each others company and want to be together. I’m expecting either price to move towards the trend cloud, which will give us the tradable bounce I’m looking for, or for price to range and wait for the trend cloud to move towards it. I’m expecting the first, but you never know. The distance, flatness and the signals lead me to believe that a correction may be more likely than a range.
Thirdly, everyone is too scared for price to fall further. Markets tend to move in a way that inflicts the most pain to the most people. Two weeks ago when everyone was shouting for Bitcoin to be at all time highs before the end of the year (okay.. that’s a bit exaggerated, but you get the point..), and what happened? They got f… We were happily short: being on the other side of the sentiment amongst crypto traders paid off, and I think it will again this time. People panic sold and are now scared to buy back in... there is fear. The conditions are right for the market to move up and restore (some) in the hearts of traders. Before crushing their spirits again, with a vengeance.
So I definitely don’t think we’re in at the bottom yet, and we need to go lower still to test previous highs at around 3000 (and possibly eventually around 1300-1000), but this looks like a nice short term tradable bounce. We'll have to see what the market does, as always. Every candle is new information to help me form an opinion on the market, and being able to adapt to each candle is more important than having a prediction and hoping for it to come true. Hope kills traders..
The trade:
Entry level is at (3), if price breaks above this level the trade will trigger. Stop loss is slightly below the previous swing low (4). The first resistance level is around 4900 (5), taken from the bottom the trend cloud. Second (6) and third (7) resistance areas are taken from the flatness of the trend cloud and the flatness of the resistance cloud.
If the trade is triggered, watch for signs of weakness around these areas to take profit. This is a short term countertrend trade, so act accordingly.
Note: the entry level is indeed the same level as the stop loss from the short trade.
If you enjoy these setups and analysis please like and subscribe so more people can join you :)
If you want to try our indicator out, follow us and drop a comment or pm and we’ll get you set up.
More information on our indicator can be found below:
Stay calm, and happy trading!
First, the overextension signal from the indicator combined with todays forming reversal candle (1). This indicates that the downwards momentum is due for a reset.
Second, the flatness of the trend cloud (2) and the large distance between price and the trendcloud (taken from ichimoku). These two like each others company and want to be together. I’m expecting either price to move towards the trend cloud, which will give us the tradable bounce I’m looking for, or for price to range and wait for the trend cloud to move towards it. I’m expecting the first, but you never know. The distance, flatness and the signals lead me to believe that a correction may be more likely than a range.
Thirdly, everyone is too scared for price to fall further. Markets tend to move in a way that inflicts the most pain to the most people. Two weeks ago when everyone was shouting for Bitcoin to be at all time highs before the end of the year (okay.. that’s a bit exaggerated, but you get the point..), and what happened? They got f… We were happily short: being on the other side of the sentiment amongst crypto traders paid off, and I think it will again this time. People panic sold and are now scared to buy back in... there is fear. The conditions are right for the market to move up and restore (some) in the hearts of traders. Before crushing their spirits again, with a vengeance.
So I definitely don’t think we’re in at the bottom yet, and we need to go lower still to test previous highs at around 3000 (and possibly eventually around 1300-1000), but this looks like a nice short term tradable bounce. We'll have to see what the market does, as always. Every candle is new information to help me form an opinion on the market, and being able to adapt to each candle is more important than having a prediction and hoping for it to come true. Hope kills traders..
The trade:
Entry level is at (3), if price breaks above this level the trade will trigger. Stop loss is slightly below the previous swing low (4). The first resistance level is around 4900 (5), taken from the bottom the trend cloud. Second (6) and third (7) resistance areas are taken from the flatness of the trend cloud and the flatness of the resistance cloud.
If the trade is triggered, watch for signs of weakness around these areas to take profit. This is a short term countertrend trade, so act accordingly.
Note: the entry level is indeed the same level as the stop loss from the short trade.
If you enjoy these setups and analysis please like and subscribe so more people can join you :)
If you want to try our indicator out, follow us and drop a comment or pm and we’ll get you set up.
More information on our indicator can be found below:
Stay calm, and happy trading!
注释
The market is starting to fall again, let's see if this takes us any lower or is just a bear trap. In any case, the plan still stands:Still in the short trade, stop loss is slightly above yesterdays candle: the entry level of the long I'm looking at here.
If price moves there, the short is closed and the long position entered.
注释
the active short trade:
订单已取消
We're making new lows. This setup is off the table. Nothing triggered, nothing lost.Still in short (the chart above this is that short trade), will we make it down to 3000 straight away..?
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