Bitcoin making another attempt for inverse H&S, nr 5 now :)

2018年8月15日

Bitcoin has made maybe 5 attempts to make that inverse H&S around the 6500 neckline, but they have all failed so far. This time it got rejected again at 6500, but with all the action going on yesterday, don't think it will fail this time (read my last few updates of the previous analysis, with a big whale buying big amounts of Bitcoin around 6250/6300). Unless a big part was all wash trading we saw yesterday, we can never now that for sure :(
Anyway, if it's not fake, these people don't buy for a 100/300 points, they buy for moves of 1000/3000 points. But i don't see the market recover very easily though, unless we see the alts make a second move up, something we have not seen for a while now. The big turning point for the mid-term is 7300, but a road of resistances is up ahead in the mean while as well.

There is room for a drop to 6100 even, but i don't think the market will be able to handle that, bulls need to feel safe with their longs, no big crashes if this is a turn around. Think for the bulls we should stay above the first green box on the right. If that breaks, it would trigger the small H&S on the left, which can bring us back to the 6100 and the danger zone.


Previous analysis:

2018年8月15日

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Still looking very good, there is still room for a drop to around 6250 and stay very bullish (bull flag on the left). A break of around 6200 can put things in danger. Big chance it will take a full day until we see a break out on either side

2018年8月15日

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Alts are looking very good now. Seems like bitcoin bulls dont want to wait a whole day before going up, still think it's too soon, but it's not like in crypto anything makes sense.

Alts are looking good as well, confirming probably the bullish sentiment turn around now.

2018年8月15日

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Seems the market is stil very nervous, bulls had control but with the slightest drop people panic and dump again. At the moment i think it's hanging around a important level now, after the 6450 broke, we dropped even faster to the current level. Think if we can see something like the blue line in the middle chart, there will be hope that it's just a correction and test of support. If the 6300/6280 breaks, we have to assume we drop to 6150, but things will change as well. Think the bullish momentum will be gone if this level breaks. On the left we see a possible H&S in the making, making it important that we hold this level. If the bulls manage to do that, we could see a good jump up again, but at the moment price it at the 50 yard line.

2018年8月16日

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And alts, do show some stability, big difference is of course, they have had a big beating already. But it does seem the panic is a bit out of the market now. Even that drop bitcoin made yesterday, the price got bought at support levels of the alts. Eventually bitcoin will show the way, but I since this is the first time in more than a month, that they are more stable, it might be a turnaround of the market. Just can’t say for sure, just so much uncertainty. Just didn’t like the drop bitcoin made to the 6230. But in the other hand, it was a text book h&s that did not even get close to its 6000 target. So either the price got support from the market, or it’s the same people who are trying to buy the market up again. Only the open shorts on Bitfinex, don’t show any panic. I find that a bit scary for the bullish version.
But I know almost every one in the market thinks, that these open shorts are people who are betting against bitcoin. I think, some or most of these are just people hedging their bitcoins in their cold wallets. In that case, these numbers would have less value.
But, the fact that the open longs are not increasing, is bad news I think. Might show a bit that there is no real confidence in the market at the moment

2018年8月17日

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Alts are making rallies, for the first time since more than a month now. Shows some bullish sentiment in the market now. Bitcoin looks like it wants to break up as well, but there is a bearish wedge in the making. But with all wedges, it can go both ways, even though a drop is usually much more likely, because of the bullish alts, there is a chance for a move upwards. We should see a big rally with volume if this red resistance breaks.

2018年8月17日

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If the bulls can manage to hold this small channel (blue circle) quite sure we will pump. Just before the rally at the 6800 break, was almost the same thing. Allot of selling pressure just coming in, but the bulls kept on pushing! So it all depends on how strong the bulls are now

2018年8月18日

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And again the bulls lacked conviction yesterday. The volume was/is just too low at the moment. It's weekend again at the moment. Meaning anything can happen.

There is a small H&S on the left, but not a good one, but it does fit the picture of the wedge on right. Because of the lack of conviction, the inverse H&S with the necklin around 6500/6600 has alsmost turned into a wedge. As long as we stay above the 6400ish, the inverse H&S can still work out. Seen an H&S turn into a wedge and eventually still worked out as the H&S. Think 6400ish is the turning point for this.

2018年8月18日

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Sorry the above message was not posted because i had a smiley in it, first time i posted it in the TG public channel first and then here. Anyway,

The support seems to have been broken, the only positive i can see at the moment, is that it's weekend and this could be just another fake move. Otherwise there is a clear target of at least 6200 and maybe even the 5900 low. Even though the fake movements have been more on the bullish side, it's weekend so this move could be invalidated just as easy again. But at the moment there has not been a real bounce up, suggesting there are no real bulls in the house to pick up the price up again. So looking bearish at the moment again

2018年8月19日

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This could be a final retest of the resistance, similar moves happened the last 2 months (and before as well). Volume is low, but could still happen if they really break the 6600 this time. But as far as i can judge from this sideways movements the past 2 weeks, unless we see a push up within half an hour or so, chances increase allot it will be a fake rally again. Unless bulls can create a perfect bull flag here.

2018年8月20日

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So it seems it was just another fake rally. The higher lows have not been broken (chart on the left) but that almost looks like an H&S. When we look on the right, as i mentioned a few days earlier, only a break of 6500/6600 would invalidate this bearish wedge. I gave op on the big inverse H&S a few days ago, but the good rally of yesterday looked like the bulls were going for it again, but so far it seems it has failed.

2018年8月20日

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That support broke, even though bulls were trying but the volume was just too low and the bears took over. The 6300 is still holding, there is a support zon up to 6200, below that level i just see one big gap up to the lows of a week ago. Bitcoin has been going on as a pingpong, confusing bulls and bears.
It has moved sideways for 5 days withing 300 points, even at the moments it's still within that range. Think the coming minutes will be important, at the moment it's still make a small bear flag, so unless the bulls push back a bit, we will probably see a test of the 6200, but don't think it will hold though. I am not going to say we will dump much more, because i have seen too many fake breakout's on the up and down side.

2018年8月20日

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Seems there someone bought 5 to 10K bitcoin with 2 hidden orders on Bitfinex, just like they did a week ago when i mentioned it. But this time i did not see it myself, looked away from the screens for half an hour, what a timing :) Wondering if this whale can get away with it a second time. Who knows how much money he has, lets say an insane number like 100K bitcoin, don't think the market is able to push through those numbers. Welcome to crypto, where one man can control the market