We might currently be seeing one of the most challenging corrective patterns in EW theory.
After beginning its corrective move up in the vicinity of 3200$ in what we must assume is an ABC pattern,
BTCUSD
topped at 4382$ entering a phase of complex correction. If the count is correct, we are now in wave E of a symmetrical triangle formed by an ABCDE correction in a higher degree ABC correction.
The first three of the lower degree correction, wave (A), was an ABC corrective pattern with leg B forming a Symmetrical triangle, whilst the second three (B) was a simple ABC correction with a thrust due to the closing of BTC futures contracts forming somewhat of a fake-out and thus a bull trap. Leg (C) formed a falling wedge with leg (D) moving up to the golden Ratio of leg (A). We might now witness a move down (E) with a retest of the lower trend-line forming the bottom of this symmetrical triangle.
In the bullish scenario BTC might pick up the ABC correction on the higher degree. The target of the measured move (C) would be around 4440$, which would amount to a 61.8% of (A) and converges nicely with 0.382 fib ratio of the bearish impulse all the way from the vicinity of 6000$ and coincides with previous resistance levels.
In the bearish scenario BTC would fail to move beyond the previous resistance level of 4382 (teal line) and we would see a running flat (rare) entering a new strong bearish move to retest the support area of 3000$.
After beginning its corrective move up in the vicinity of 3200$ in what we must assume is an ABC pattern,
BTCUSD
topped at 4382$ entering a phase of complex correction. If the count is correct, we are now in wave E of a symmetrical triangle formed by an ABCDE correction in a higher degree ABC correction.
The first three of the lower degree correction, wave (A), was an ABC corrective pattern with leg B forming a Symmetrical triangle, whilst the second three (B) was a simple ABC correction with a thrust due to the closing of BTC futures contracts forming somewhat of a fake-out and thus a bull trap. Leg (C) formed a falling wedge with leg (D) moving up to the golden Ratio of leg (A). We might now witness a move down (E) with a retest of the lower trend-line forming the bottom of this symmetrical triangle.
In the bullish scenario BTC might pick up the ABC correction on the higher degree. The target of the measured move (C) would be around 4440$, which would amount to a 61.8% of (A) and converges nicely with 0.382 fib ratio of the bearish impulse all the way from the vicinity of 6000$ and coincides with previous resistance levels.
In the bearish scenario BTC would fail to move beyond the previous resistance level of 4382 (teal line) and we would see a running flat (rare) entering a new strong bearish move to retest the support area of 3000$.
评论:
Short follow-up with some perspective
评论:
The current count now suggests a triple three, with a flat, a zigzag and a triangle