BTC: Addressing Those Who Have a Short Position Open
已更新
Hi Everyone! This video is addressing those who currently have a Short Position open. I explained to a certain degree how I personally would not have opened a short position until the price was about to fall down from $49,840 to $49,850; based on what I would have seen at the time in the 30m, 1h and 2h time frames. I also pointed out I would have broken up periods of taking profit into four (4) parts. The first part for taking profit would have been around the Magenta Lower B-Band in the 2-hour time frame. Mainly because the Red Line in the 2-hour was not ready to fall DOWN FROM the Magenta Lower Level 40 on a potential drop down. Which was the case...
Also, once profit was taken at the Magenta Lower B-Band, you would consider moving your stop loss down just below your entry in order to lock in the profits you had just taken. That would be a choice for you to make at that time. I also mentioned you may have preferred to keep your stop loss above your short entry price and simply saw the profit already taken as insurance to not lose as much if the price were to come back up to trigger your stop loss. That choice would be entirely up to you.
It's important to note the current level of the Red Line in the 4-hour time frame; which is top left of center on the chart below. The Red Line in the 4-hour is "NOT" ready to FALL DOWN FROM Yellow Level 50 in the 4-hour. Therefore, I current local floor of support in the short term would likely be the Yellow B-Band Basis in the 4-hour around $48,690. Why? Because the Red Line was not ready to fall down from Yellow Level 50 for a sustained period of time.
4-hour is top left of center in chart below:
Another time frame to consider; in regard to "floor of support" would be the 24-hour time frame; which is bottom left of center in the chart below. NOTE: The Red Line is currently at level 100. Which is well above Aqua Upper Level 90. This implies we have a high probability for the Aqua Upper B-Band to maintain support for the entire 24-hours of the current 24-hour candle. Yes, the price might dip below the Aqua Upper B-Band but has a high probability of "closing" at or above the Aqua Upper B-Band due to the currently level of the Red Line in the 24-hour.
24-hour is bottom left of center below:
So, $48,650 was likely our current local short term support based on what we were seeing in the 2h, 4h and 24h time frames. As for our Near Term Local Support; I used the 3-Day time frame. Which is the bottom right corner of the chart below. NOTE: The Red Line in the 3-Day is above White Upper Level 70 in Phoenix Ascending. Implying the Red Line is "NOT" ready to FALL DOWN FROM the White Upper Level 70 area. Therefore, the White Upper B-Band has a high probability of holding support if the price were to fall down significantly. The White Upper B-Band the "next" 3-Day candle will be at approximately $46,000. It's currently at around $45,600.
CONCLUSION: The Red Line in the 24-hour is still VERY HIGH. Which implies we still have fairly strong support in the Aqua and White Upper B-Bands for quite a while longer. So, if you were to have a short position open at this time, the probability of the price falling and continuing to fall for a sustained period of time is actually a very low probability. Especially, if you are hoping for the price to fall down to the $30,000 to $32,000 price range. If you have a short position open with hope of it falling down to the price range, you would have to wait for a very long time in my opinion. Is it possible? Sure... But is it probable; at least based on what we see within the indicators at this particular time? No... We must conclude our current floor of support is the White Upper B-Band in the 3-Day and no lower than the Magenta Upper B-Band in the 3-Day. Which would be between $45,600 and $44,800. Even then, I would not count on the price action falling down to that price range. Yes, it's possible for it to fall down to that price range. I just want you to be prepared to have that short position open for quite a while if that is your final target to take profit if this is your determined floor of support for the near term
I hope this information was helpful... My previous publications were not intended to discourage people from opening short positions. The purpose of the previous publications was to encourage everyone to be careful drawing a conclusion we are falling down to the $30,000 to $32,000 price range. The indicators simply do not support such a move AT THIS TIME. Could the indicators in multiple time frames support this in the future? Sure, it's possible... Just not at this time. So, if you have a short position open, you must be prepared to close that position once it is rather obvious the price will no longer continue falling below a particular price point and has resumed upward pressure for the Near Term.
Yes, the White Energy may begin falling further below level 50 in the 24-hour time frame the next 24-hour candle; resulting in the price action continuing to stair step DOWN to around the $45,600 to $46,200 price range. That is possible... Just keep in mind the Red Line in the 24-hour time frame would likely have to fall below level 50 to increase the probability for the price to continue falling down to the $30,000 to $32,000 price range. We are a long way off from that potential; since the current level of the Red Line in the 24-hour is currently above level 100.
Happy Trading and Stay Awesome!
David
Also, once profit was taken at the Magenta Lower B-Band, you would consider moving your stop loss down just below your entry in order to lock in the profits you had just taken. That would be a choice for you to make at that time. I also mentioned you may have preferred to keep your stop loss above your short entry price and simply saw the profit already taken as insurance to not lose as much if the price were to come back up to trigger your stop loss. That choice would be entirely up to you.
It's important to note the current level of the Red Line in the 4-hour time frame; which is top left of center on the chart below. The Red Line in the 4-hour is "NOT" ready to FALL DOWN FROM Yellow Level 50 in the 4-hour. Therefore, I current local floor of support in the short term would likely be the Yellow B-Band Basis in the 4-hour around $48,690. Why? Because the Red Line was not ready to fall down from Yellow Level 50 for a sustained period of time.
4-hour is top left of center in chart below:
Another time frame to consider; in regard to "floor of support" would be the 24-hour time frame; which is bottom left of center in the chart below. NOTE: The Red Line is currently at level 100. Which is well above Aqua Upper Level 90. This implies we have a high probability for the Aqua Upper B-Band to maintain support for the entire 24-hours of the current 24-hour candle. Yes, the price might dip below the Aqua Upper B-Band but has a high probability of "closing" at or above the Aqua Upper B-Band due to the currently level of the Red Line in the 24-hour.
24-hour is bottom left of center below:
So, $48,650 was likely our current local short term support based on what we were seeing in the 2h, 4h and 24h time frames. As for our Near Term Local Support; I used the 3-Day time frame. Which is the bottom right corner of the chart below. NOTE: The Red Line in the 3-Day is above White Upper Level 70 in Phoenix Ascending. Implying the Red Line is "NOT" ready to FALL DOWN FROM the White Upper Level 70 area. Therefore, the White Upper B-Band has a high probability of holding support if the price were to fall down significantly. The White Upper B-Band the "next" 3-Day candle will be at approximately $46,000. It's currently at around $45,600.
CONCLUSION: The Red Line in the 24-hour is still VERY HIGH. Which implies we still have fairly strong support in the Aqua and White Upper B-Bands for quite a while longer. So, if you were to have a short position open at this time, the probability of the price falling and continuing to fall for a sustained period of time is actually a very low probability. Especially, if you are hoping for the price to fall down to the $30,000 to $32,000 price range. If you have a short position open with hope of it falling down to the price range, you would have to wait for a very long time in my opinion. Is it possible? Sure... But is it probable; at least based on what we see within the indicators at this particular time? No... We must conclude our current floor of support is the White Upper B-Band in the 3-Day and no lower than the Magenta Upper B-Band in the 3-Day. Which would be between $45,600 and $44,800. Even then, I would not count on the price action falling down to that price range. Yes, it's possible for it to fall down to that price range. I just want you to be prepared to have that short position open for quite a while if that is your final target to take profit if this is your determined floor of support for the near term
I hope this information was helpful... My previous publications were not intended to discourage people from opening short positions. The purpose of the previous publications was to encourage everyone to be careful drawing a conclusion we are falling down to the $30,000 to $32,000 price range. The indicators simply do not support such a move AT THIS TIME. Could the indicators in multiple time frames support this in the future? Sure, it's possible... Just not at this time. So, if you have a short position open, you must be prepared to close that position once it is rather obvious the price will no longer continue falling below a particular price point and has resumed upward pressure for the Near Term.
Yes, the White Energy may begin falling further below level 50 in the 24-hour time frame the next 24-hour candle; resulting in the price action continuing to stair step DOWN to around the $45,600 to $46,200 price range. That is possible... Just keep in mind the Red Line in the 24-hour time frame would likely have to fall below level 50 to increase the probability for the price to continue falling down to the $30,000 to $32,000 price range. We are a long way off from that potential; since the current level of the Red Line in the 24-hour is currently above level 100.
Happy Trading and Stay Awesome!
David
注释
UPDATE:3-Day time frame:
BLUE TEXT BUBBLE:
If the Green Line and White Energy were to turn down
the "next" 3-Day candle, I would anticipate the White
or Magenta UPPER B-Band to be our current Floor of
Support. The White and Magenta Upper B-Bands are
currently "rising." Which means the price points of
the White and Magenta UPPER B-Bands the "next" 3-Day
candle will be "higher" than price points this current
3-Day candle. This is why I'm saying our current Near
Term Floor of Support is between $45,000 and $46,000
due to the future price points of the White & Magenta
UPPER B-Bands the "next" 3-Day candle.
注释
UPDATE:Does this previous post imply I'm saying the price action will continue falling down to the $43,000 to $46,000 price range? No... I'm simply pointing out that "if" the price action continues falling I would anticipate that price range being our Near Term Floor of Support. NOT $30,000 to $32,000. If we were to fall down to the $30,000 to $32,0000 price range, it would have to be a major event involving a considerable amount of slippage; with a huge wick underneather the body of the 3-Day candle. Why a huge wick? Because the price would be over-extended down if we had such a move down. Why would we say it would be "over-extended down?" Well, look at the level of the Red Line in the 3-Day time frame. It's currently at Level 81. The price action would pop back up to get in harmony with the Red Line very quick like if we saw a huge move down to $30,000 to $32,000. Meaning, the price action would pop back up to the White/Aqua Upper B-Bands rather quickly to get in harmoney with the Red Line in Phoenix which is at the White/Aqua Upper Levels.
BOTTOM LINE: Probabilities of price falling down to $30,000 to $32,000 price range is VERY LOW. But if it were to fall down that low, it would pop back up VERY QUICKLY to the White/Aqua Upper B-Band area since the Red Line within Phoenix is at the White/Aqua Upper Levels currently.
注释
UPDATE:If you are a new follower and unaware the color coordinated price points in the price column to the right point out the current price of the upper and lower B-Bands, the following chart below points out that color coordination.
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