Bitcoin's bearish divergence, short term double top, exhausted RSI, and bearish candlestick symbols all indicate an imminent correction. The first support it will hit is the previous high of 6200. Although this could hold, I believe a more likely target is 5000. This was the ATH of the previous wave, and the 61.8% fibonacci retracement of the previous closing low to the most recent ATH. A slightly modified retracement (using low instead of close) gives us a target of 4800.
Calling an exact price can be difficult. Although indicators can't tell us exact prices or dates, they can be a great resource for deciding when to enter a market. The RSI for Bitcoin has followed a channel for nearly a year now. Based on the previous two corrections, the market should reverse when the RSI touches the bottom of this channel, currently 30.
The second indicator to watch is the moving average. Bitcoin appears to reverse after tapping the 130 day SMA, though you can use the 100 day SMA for a more conservative entry point.
As Bitcoin drops, keep in mind that this is a young, unregulated market. It can act irrationally and can be easily manipulated. Always use caution and weigh the risks.
Note: The previous two runs have hit the upper resistance line twice before correcting. The current run may only be in wave 4 of 5, as it has only touched this resistance once. If the double tap pattern continues, a rally to 8200 is possible.
Calling an exact price can be difficult. Although indicators can't tell us exact prices or dates, they can be a great resource for deciding when to enter a market. The RSI for Bitcoin has followed a channel for nearly a year now. Based on the previous two corrections, the market should reverse when the RSI touches the bottom of this channel, currently 30.
The second indicator to watch is the moving average. Bitcoin appears to reverse after tapping the 130 day SMA, though you can use the 100 day SMA for a more conservative entry point.
As Bitcoin drops, keep in mind that this is a young, unregulated market. It can act irrationally and can be easily manipulated. Always use caution and weigh the risks.
Note: The previous two runs have hit the upper resistance line twice before correcting. The current run may only be in wave 4 of 5, as it has only touched this resistance once. If the double tap pattern continues, a rally to 8200 is possible.
评论:
After a hefty fourth wave, it looks like Bitcoin went for that fifth wave toward the resistance line that I mentioned near the end of this analysis. Unless Bitcoin definitively closes a day above the resistance line, expect a retracement to 4800-5000.