Market structure and price action is simply bearish. Circled wick was the Elon pump.
On-chain is extremely bullish.
Dilemma.
Longs above 35k daily close or at 0.5 & 0.618 fibs.
On-chain is extremely bullish.
Dilemma.
Longs above 35k daily close or at 0.5 & 0.618 fibs.
评论:
Reasoning behind 65% exposure despite 50/50 chances for deeper correction:
1. Market cycle: I believe we are still in early to mid stages of this bull market. I try to minimise fine-tuning long positions during bull markets.
2. Institutional demand: It almost became a meme during 2017-2018. This time it's for real, it can be seen through on-chain analysis. We also see bullish news of new institutional players entering the market on a weekly basis.
3. Retail investors: I think we might be in the late stages of the bull market in traditional markets. The amount of high-risk gamblers in the market is at all time highs. Robinhood traders, Tesla fanboys, lately WallStreetBets. The degens have made a killing, and I believe a lot of this money will flow into crypto this year.
The potential demand is just too explosive for me to keep exposure under 50%.
1. Market cycle: I believe we are still in early to mid stages of this bull market. I try to minimise fine-tuning long positions during bull markets.
2. Institutional demand: It almost became a meme during 2017-2018. This time it's for real, it can be seen through on-chain analysis. We also see bullish news of new institutional players entering the market on a weekly basis.
3. Retail investors: I think we might be in the late stages of the bull market in traditional markets. The amount of high-risk gamblers in the market is at all time highs. Robinhood traders, Tesla fanboys, lately WallStreetBets. The degens have made a killing, and I believe a lot of this money will flow into crypto this year.
The potential demand is just too explosive for me to keep exposure under 50%.
评论:
Having hard time trying to figure out where I'd buy back, if the price starts moving up. I feel the original 'daily close above 35k' might still be in no man's land.
Acceptance above 37k (and the 0.618 fib ) could be smarter - smaller probability of being made a fool by another liquidity grab.
Hmm.
Acceptance above 37k (and the 0.618 fib ) could be smarter - smaller probability of being made a fool by another liquidity grab.
Hmm.
评论:
More thoughts about the possible fuckery.
Another form of fuckery is time. Rather than Bitcoin to make a massive unexpected move, we could see a prolonged range. I'm guilty of often being impatient and way too wired to binary thinking. "It's x or y." That's not how markets tend to work.
Everyone is at the edge of their seats, screaming a narrative:
"Bottom is in, it's going to 50k!" or "We are heading back to $20-25k!"
You can feel the adrenaline.
Imagine we form a 5-10k range for the next 4 months, with multiple fake-outs both directions.
Another form of fuckery is time. Rather than Bitcoin to make a massive unexpected move, we could see a prolonged range. I'm guilty of often being impatient and way too wired to binary thinking. "It's x or y." That's not how markets tend to work.
Everyone is at the edge of their seats, screaming a narrative:
"Bottom is in, it's going to 50k!" or "We are heading back to $20-25k!"
You can feel the adrenaline.
Imagine we form a 5-10k range for the next 4 months, with multiple fake-outs both directions.
评论:
I added BTC & ETH exposure at $35.5k and $1500.
Exposure is 84% :
60% BTC
16% USDT
11% ETH
8% ADA
6% LINK
Exposure is 84% :
60% BTC
16% USDT
11% ETH
8% ADA
6% LINK
评论:
Not feeling too confident with my current position. Longs are over leveraging on a rapid rate, and it feels like everything under $39-40k could still be just ranging.
I also have hard time figuring out where my stops should be. Or whether I should just stay long, log off and come back in a month.
I guess I'll just play the daily 20 or 30MA's, and accept the possibility of getting chopped to death. Above 20MA: long, below 20MA: hedge.
I also have hard time figuring out where my stops should be. Or whether I should just stay long, log off and come back in a month.
I guess I'll just play the daily 20 or 30MA's, and accept the possibility of getting chopped to death. Above 20MA: long, below 20MA: hedge.
评论:
(^ at the time of writing, price is ~36k)
I expect $100k by the end of 2021, but wouldn't be surprised to see some serious fuckery to fully reset the market before moving up. Bitcoin did 11x in 10 months, without >20% corrections. Dropping all the way to 0.5-0.618 fibs would definitely wipe out a lot of traders and weak hands.
30.01. EXPOSURE:
50% BTC, 15% ETH/LINK, 35% cash.