calling a bottom, BTC expected short term return 65%
Hello everyone,
*BTC is bottoming, biggest BTC miners globally already sold their holdings and the worst is behind.
*According to quantitative analysis, a price change of -54% in 35 days is a worst case scenario event which is considered a magnificent buying opportunity in a bull market.
*a rebound to $55000 (+65%) is very likely over the next two weeks.
methodology
first, before I present my analysis let me briefly introduce my methodology. the price is represented by white candlesticks, the top chart is 12H candlesticks while the bottom chart is 6H candlesticks. the set of technical indicators on the price is composed of 9 price moving averages of the following lengths (16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024, 2048, 4096). At the bottom of the top chart, in orange is the 365 moving average of 12H price change in % (multiply that number by 2 and it gives the average % daily return over the past 6 months). finally, at the bottom of each chart, the black area represents the volume moving average (the volume is related to BINANCE exchange).
technical analysis
the first step in analysis we need to check if BTC is still in a bull run, an easy way to do that is by calculating the average % daily return over the past 6 months (the number in orange multiplied by 2) which is around 0.44%. On this rate BTC price is going to multiply 2.27X times by year end, in other words a conservative $80000 price target by year end.
next step is to analyze the volume. the volume in the top chart shows a surge that hasn't happened since covid-19 crash, which indicate that this crash to $30000 came as a result of Chinese miners selling almost 40 thousand BTC plus almost 2 times that in long liquidations. the volume in the bottom chart shows volume is declining gradually after the crash, which indicates that whoever wants to sell has already sold at market after the bad news from china. this volume analysis indicates that this is most probably the bottom of this sell-off and in my opinion, a V-shaped recovery is very likely.
finally, the price analysis shows that BTC (the analysis is related to the bottom chart) is very likely to revert towards its longer term averages around $55000 in the near future, that's 65% expected return over the short term.
if you like my idea pls support by like, comment, and share
thanks
Mostafa
*BTC is bottoming, biggest BTC miners globally already sold their holdings and the worst is behind.
*According to quantitative analysis, a price change of -54% in 35 days is a worst case scenario event which is considered a magnificent buying opportunity in a bull market.
*a rebound to $55000 (+65%) is very likely over the next two weeks.
methodology
first, before I present my analysis let me briefly introduce my methodology. the price is represented by white candlesticks, the top chart is 12H candlesticks while the bottom chart is 6H candlesticks. the set of technical indicators on the price is composed of 9 price moving averages of the following lengths (16, 32, 64, 128, 256, 512, 1024, 2048, 4096). At the bottom of the top chart, in orange is the 365 moving average of 12H price change in % (multiply that number by 2 and it gives the average % daily return over the past 6 months). finally, at the bottom of each chart, the black area represents the volume moving average (the volume is related to BINANCE exchange).
technical analysis
the first step in analysis we need to check if BTC is still in a bull run, an easy way to do that is by calculating the average % daily return over the past 6 months (the number in orange multiplied by 2) which is around 0.44%. On this rate BTC price is going to multiply 2.27X times by year end, in other words a conservative $80000 price target by year end.
next step is to analyze the volume. the volume in the top chart shows a surge that hasn't happened since covid-19 crash, which indicate that this crash to $30000 came as a result of Chinese miners selling almost 40 thousand BTC plus almost 2 times that in long liquidations. the volume in the bottom chart shows volume is declining gradually after the crash, which indicates that whoever wants to sell has already sold at market after the bad news from china. this volume analysis indicates that this is most probably the bottom of this sell-off and in my opinion, a V-shaped recovery is very likely.
finally, the price analysis shows that BTC (the analysis is related to the bottom chart) is very likely to revert towards its longer term averages around $55000 in the near future, that's 65% expected return over the short term.
if you like my idea pls support by like, comment, and share
thanks
Mostafa
