Bitcoin (BTC): technical and fundamental analysis

9月4日

📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT

The price of Bitcoin continues to fall and has remained below the EMA 200 and EMA 50 moving averages for over a week. A hidden bearish divergence is forming on the RSI indicator. If the support level at $56,000 fails to hold against selling pressure, we expect a move into the Imbalance 1H zone, where the gaps on the horizontal volume levels need to be filled through trading. In the range of $50,000 - $52,000, we anticipate the correction to conclude and the trend to reverse. Otherwise, the price may head into the next Imbalance 4H zone, where it could experience a deep freefall, potentially leading to a retest of the global upward trend line. This is due to the lack of significant resistance blocks and large gaps on the horizontal volume levels in this area.

For the price to resume its upward movement, BTC needs to break above the dynamic resistance line of the EMA 200 and secure a position above the ascending trend line. This would pave the way for a retest of the $65,000 resistance level and further movement towards the global trend line and the major resistance block at $70,000 - $75,000.




📉 Bitcoin market global analysis

On the daily logarithmic chart, Bitcoin's price continues to move within a broadening wedge pattern. Currently, the price is approaching a retest of the 200-day moving average, and the outcome of this retest will determine its future direction. Globally, the descending wedge is considered a bullish corrective pattern. However, before breaking out upwards and resuming its growth, BTC may test the lower boundary of the wedge near the 0.61-0.78 Fibonacci retracement levels, where the global support trendline is also located. Such a scenario would present a good opportunity to accumulate long-term positions before the final rally of this Bitcoin cycle.

Above the current ATH, there are no resistance levels based on historical data. Therefore, to set growth targets, we will use trendlines, Fibonacci extension levels, and an analysis of large order blocks in order books. The first 1.23 Fibonacci extension level is located at $80,000. In the $90,000 - $100,000 range, there is a global trendline built on the peaks of the two previous Bitcoin cycles, along with the 1.38 Fibonacci extension level. The highest trendline is in the range of the 1.61 - 1.78 Fibonacci extension levels, with its test potentially starting at the $100,000 level.




💠 Analysis of liquidity zones and levels

The Fear and Greed Index is in the fear zone - 27.
The total capitalization of the cryptocurrency market fell to $1993 billion, and the Bitcoin Dominance Index rose to 57.54.
According to the analysis of the accumulation of large order blocks in the order books, the largest blocks are at levels 50,000 and 70,000, and the supply and demand zones are located at the following levels:
🟢 Demand zone: 50,000 - 56,000
🔴 Supply zone: 68,000 - 80,000

Levels for long positions:
55,000 - large support block
52,000 - large support block
50,000 - psychological support level

Levels for short positions:
60,000 - EMA 200 retest
65,000 - large resistance block
70,000 - large resistance block
80,000 - large resistance block




📊 Fundamental analysis

In September, the cryptocurrency market is facing significant uncertainty. There has been a continued outflow from spot Bitcoin ETFs. Last week alone, $305 million was withdrawn from cryptocurrency-based investment products, and on the last trading day, ETFs collectively lost $287.7 million, marking the third-largest daily outflow.

Bitcoin historically tends to decline in September, with BTC consistently showing negative performance during this month. Since 2013, its price has dropped by an average of 4.78% in September. Analysts have also noted a decrease in stablecoin inflows, indicating that market participants are expecting further price declines. However, if history repeats itself, BTC could see significant growth starting in October, as large players are already increasing their positions and withdrawing Bitcoin from exchanges.

Major Wall Street indices ended Tuesday's trading session with losses, driven by negative trends in the technology, commodities, and oil and gas sectors. Looking ahead, the U.S. economic calendar is packed with important events, including the upcoming presidential elections. Experts predict that cryptocurrencies will become increasingly sensitive to developments surrounding potential changes in U.S. monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is set to make a decision on the key interest rate on September 18. Previously, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a likely reduction in the key interest rate, boosting investor optimism.

🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy

We expect increased volatility in both stock and cryptocurrency markets on the following dates:

➤ 09/06, 15:30 - US unemployment data for August.

➤ 09/11, 15:30 - US consumer inflation index (CPI) for August.

➤ 09/18, 21:00 - New Fed interest rate decision.

➤ 11/05, 00:00 - US presidential election.

➤ 11/07, 21:00 - New Fed interest rate decision.


📈 Statistics of signals from our AI trading indicator:

In August, the Bitcoin price continued falling, and then the market began to slowly recover. Our trading indicator, as always, warned about this in advance! And even during the flat period it gave good entry points. Thanks to the latest updates, all 11 signals have become profitable, and built-in Anti-Flat System prevented losses from manipulative market movements.
- Total price movement by all signals: + 70.73%
- Maximum price movement: + 22.81%
- Average price movement: + 6.43%