mycotoxin

Mind the Dead cats bouncing ...

POLONIEX:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / Tether USD
4034 56 27
This looks liked short lived move upwards - We are only going up becasue the 4 hour candle has hit a 9 on the downturn and is now going to count up
for 1 to 4 green candles ( 1 to 16 hours) then we go back down again . Mind the dead cat bounce.
评论: This run should end at on of the resistance points first one coming up is 733x
评论: To make money in this market take profits at right before all resistance stops and buy back after they dip - other resistance areas along the route 8216 8500 9300 .
评论: I was hoping to avoid calculating where we can go , but this looks interesting .
Please stand by ,
评论: first target 733x
评论: First target 733x then wait for the pullback
评论:
评论: there will be a small hit from the 7169 area maybe ( $300) but the one to look out for is the 7300 area
评论: its going to drop to 6390 - come back in later
评论: buy back after it hits 6390

评论: be patient it will drop lower to the 63xx ,
评论: Now its time for BTC to go for the kill and collect some easy money
BTC is vert sly , But we are one step ahead,
评论: we take BTCs money and not the other way round
评论: The minimum drop is 6750 s we have to at least see this figure or close to it.
评论: somewhere in the 67xx region but if that fails then we can drop to the 63xx region .
评论: note this last climb was also a big bear flag setup. so if if 67xx does not hold and 63x fails we are exiting the bear flag and moving to 5k

评论: if BTC an make it past 7350 it can move to the next target upwards
评论: watch the 7551 spot - may just go past it but also hits a sell in 4 mins ,
评论: if 7650 holds BTC can run till 8200 ,
评论: 7353 should stop the 7551 fall if not 7265 will try
评论: if 77xx holds the next profit spot is 8200 then 9300
评论: turbulence may drop BTC to 7534 then it should move back upwards.
评论: theres also support at 7337 to break any falls
评论: we can stay on cruise control mode till 8200
评论: NOTE we are still in dead cat bounce mode and BTC will eventually move back downwards . We don't know when this move will be so we have to be careful at the major resistance points .
评论: the main resistance points that come to mind are 8200 , 9300 and 10000
评论: The current on going drop has a stop at 7541 and 7344 . Id HOD unless it drops past 7344,
评论: BTC is still on track for 8200 .
评论: We are good to go unless we drop lower than 7300
评论: take profit if dips below 7300 as this can become a 4k drop
'
评论: And this ends our (1 to 4 ) 4hour an candle pull up for today and BTC will begin to make its way down to the next support levels .
评论: To be considered as moving up BTC has to remain above 7350 .
评论: I didn't see this before but there is good support at 7350 , if BTC can cling onto this support for awhile it may give it momentum to swing higher.
评论: The 2 hour candle will also begin its 1 to 4 hour pull back in 11 mins - So every 2 hours we can see BTC drop for to the next 8 hours.
Next good support will be at 6391.
评论: Im still half in BTC till around 7200 at which point ill short out.
评论: Notice the daily candle has hit a 9 so starting Wednesday we have potentially 1 to 4 days of upward movement then down again

评论: Folks Im going silent for a while - until I see that 4k drop . Theres no point in posting graphs if it does not reflect what occurs. So either my methodology is incorrect and I need to review or something is aims . I will not further any graphs - But for we can enjoy 1 to 4 days of uptime . It will take us to the weekend.

Thanks you and have a great week .
交易手动结束
评论: Well that didnt last long ... look for the BTC teflon brakes to kick in at 7523 to apply some stopping pressure,
评论: Thats the thing about BTC it does not forget. It wanders off and always returns to complete the drops: its working on the two from yesterday that it skipped so if it keep falling it should stop at 7534 and go back up - if not 733x will stop it ,

> Feb 6: Comment: turbulence may drop BTC to 7534 then it should move back upwards.
> Feb 6 " Comment: theres also support at 7337 to break any falls
评论: There's still 1 to 4 days of potential upward movement so the 4k dump is not here yet. 7534 and 7337 should do their job .
评论: should 7337 fail to hold we will move to 6xxx , this area is good support as we bounced from there earlier.
评论: 7537 has applied the the teflon brakes ,,and movement is now upwards ,. Can it last ? BTC has to first break 84xx for good upward confirmation
评论: closing today above 7950 is another good sign BTC is moving higher . Closing Below 7950 not so good.
评论: from what i can graph BTC will touch 7212 on its current journey.
评论: Head and shoulders anyone ?

A good sign of upward movement will be for BTC 3.97% to break out of the current channel.
However at the moment BTC appears to be forming an head a shoulders pattern which is typically a reversal to the downside.

评论: ahhh wrong graph ,,,ignore the last one
评论: This is more like it
=====================
A good sign of upward movement will be for BTC 3.97% to break out of the current channel.
However at the moment BTC appears to be forming an head a shoulders pattern which is typically a reversal to the downside.

评论: BTC is attempting the break out of the channel . This is getting interesting .
评论: one hour view of the break-out in progress -

评论: BTCs broken out , 3 white horsemen in a row and the bull is unstoppable for today .A great effort by BTC . Now onwards and upwards,
评论: BTC has to stay out of that channel to be in good shape
评论: that candle has not closed yet so BTC can fall back into the channel
评论: A quick dash to the 8232 support level would be helpful and provide support - where have all the buyers gone ?
评论: what happens if BTC falls to the opposite side of of the channel because buyers are not available and the bears move in ? That would be a fall to the area between 7500 and 73xx . The 7534 support held previously and may do it a second time.
评论: in 2 hours the 5 hour will begin to clear its overbought so we can expect a small dip. its on a 9 currently and should count down for potentially 1 to 4 candles ( between 5 to 20 hours ) , Can it land on 8425 before then ?

评论: ...in 2 hours the 5 hour candle will begin to clear its overbought so we can expect a small dip. its on a 9 currently and should count down for potentially 1 to 4 candles ( between 5 to 20 hours ) , Can it land on 8425 before then ?
评论: This bothers me - why did BTC allow 7212 to be graphed ? Whats the significance.

评论: If this is a double top BTC can drop to 72xx before moving back upwards .
If its is not a double top BTC will continue its journey upwards to the next
high target inside the channel.

评论: IF BTC does dip to a Double top then Teflon brakes will kick in at 8416, 8224, 7530 and 7356 to stop the fall. Emergency brakes will be applied at 7200 if the fall continues.
评论: If BTC does dip to 72xx and bounce back upwards this will explain this puzzling graph below which showed a drop to 72xx.

If BTC does not touch 72xx then this is most likely a future drop which will occur in the coming weeks / days.

评论: If BTC drops to the 71xx area we can notice that BTC did not forget the drops it missed on Feb 6th. BTC does this strange behavior all the time . It shows us the drops and then It skips the drops and moves higher, and just as we are feeling comfy BTC will come back down and cover the drops.

评论: This is challenging spot for BTC - it can be a break up or a break down so we have to be patient and let BTC decide the direction.
评论: is the divergence trying to tell us something ?

评论: Staying above 7600 can provide a reversal back upwards. Dropping below 7600 may indicate a drop to the 6K area.
评论: BTC needs to step off 7800 and move to 7900 or higher . The longer we spending bouncing at 7800 the weaker 7800 becomes and will eventually break.
The same applies to support , the longer BTC bounces on a support the weaker it becomes,
评论:

The current Channel BTC is traveling in is indicated by the blue lines.
Dropping below Line B or 7600 may indicate drop to the 6K area

BTC will need to stay above the green line - ( 7600) to provide a shot at a reversal upwards.
Also breaking above line A is a good sign of a reversal upwards.
评论: BTCs has broken out the channel and heading to 8700

评论: triple Top at 8250 location - BTC will need to push through this region with momentum,
评论: correction
============
triple Top at 8500 location - BTC will need to push through this region with momentum,
评论: BTC can still bounce back up - just needs to remain in the channel highlighted by the green lines,

评论: BTCs failure to return to the channel can be problematic and lead to a retest of the the 6K area

评论: same pattern just a different day

 
评论: Same pattern updated graph v2.0

评论: The strange story of the disappearing BTC buyers - where'd they go ?

评论: This could be the 'BInance effect'
评论: This looks like a head and shoulders reversal to 79xx . The right hump will have to break upwards to negate it .

评论: BTCs brakes should first kick in at 8100 - But i suspect BTC is going lower ,
评论: The bouncing dead cats theory :
Something odd observed is the huge BTC volume that came in a few day ago and gradually disappeared during the last few days and hours. it looked promising and gradually fizzled .

评论: The calculated drop from a head and shoulders is always the distance from the neck line to the top of the head . in this case its between 8100 and 79xx . So we can be sure that we will at the minimum see a drop to the 8100 area
评论: A great question by user @Clueless13 i figured I'd share here .
(note this is not to be taken as trading advice and I could be 100 incorrect)

@Clueless13
=============
Hello Myco, you previously stated on Feb 7 "Comment: There's still 1 to 4 days of potential upward movement so the 4k dump is not here yet. 7534 and 7337 should do their job". Is this still expected, 4k drop i.e.?

best answer
===============
Great question theres 7 hours left for the third day then potentially one more day of upside, By upside I mean we can climb up from the 8100 location and but not necessarily go much higher than 9k.

I don't see 4K today i suspect BTC will lounge at the 8100 / 79xx area for a few hours and attempt a comeback before dropping a leg lower. 7543 and 7337 will do their job temporarily to stop any falls and we could end up closer to 7128.

- The 6K area s looks like its next in line to be tested ( click on the graph below ..its almost looks like the current location is dangling dangerously in mid-air and
begging to drop to 6k to complete the drop.

However note that BTC does not do double bottoms very well and is not a fan of these things. So my thoughts are we will end up in the upper or lower 5k area sometime next week .

* Another outcome is BTC climbs back from 8100 and moves to the 94xx area and then drops back lower to to the 6K area

评论: Question :
How can we tell BTC is setting a Bull Trap to take our hard earned shekels ?

Answer:
We have to at least see the drop to 8100 or we can rationalize we are being baited and we have to be careful.
评论: Guys wake up :
-----------------
we have to understand that we now have many institutional investors in the crypto space and BTC has a limited supply cap . So it seems only logical the price be lowered so more BTC can be accumulated at bargain prices.
评论: A possible shorterm move after hitting 8100 is to move to 9500:
==================================================

looking at the current channel BTC -4.00% is moving we see its moving to the the right of the channel while descending indicating the next movement could occur from the right side .
This will be concurrent with a movement to the upside . Note the current downward channel is also a bull flag with an upwards move which reaches 9500 .
So lets be on the lookout to make extra profits as BTC -4.00% may first move to 9500 after 8100 and them move lower.

评论: Correction it looks more like a shorterm movement to 9120
评论: we can pick up some BTC now for a short ride up to the 9120-93xx area
评论: Double checking shows the actual move up distance will be
9305 - (poloniex)
9280 - Bittrex
9327 - coinbase
This area is is a major resistance area and we can expect a significant retracement .

评论: whats BTC up to ?

Im not sure what BTC is up to but the current candle setup is a candle reversal to 8244.

评论: IF BTC breaks down below the channel ( the blue lines ), we need to be wary of potential long distance drops .
评论: BTC could be starting its journey down


we can confirm by making sure it has not left the channel .
评论: This could be a bear-trap where it appears BTC is moving down but its really going to move up. confirm using the channel graphs above and HODL the BTC,
评论: I almost got caught on this one ... HODL the BTC -

BTC is creating a BULL Flag - Bull flags signal a move higher but they slope downwards so during creation we may get the impression that the token is falling .

https://speedtrader.com/how-to-trade-flag-patterns/
评论: We can expect BTC to drop to 7900 during this bull flag creation. This distance is also the missing 7900 distance from the head and shoulders drop.
The 8100 measurement given earlier for the head and shoulders drop was to the nearest resistance line, but the actual drop from the neckline to head multiplied by takes BTC to 7900 . This should also be the location of end of the Bull flag creation . Then BTC can move back to 9300 .

评论: 79xx better kick-in and reverse it back up - or abort
评论: bounce point

评论: Bounce Zone > 7932 or abort

评论: Bounce confirmed if BTC successfully moves past 8200
评论: 9300 is still the next target unless BTC - drops below 7800.

评论: BTC needs to break out of the the box upwards and keep moving north
评论: Inverse Head and Shoulders BTC is going to try for 84xx


评论: Breakout ! and BTC is off north to visit the 8437
评论: We do need to see above 8300 for absolute reversal confirmation
评论: Well... thats 8350 out the way and BTC is off to 84xx
评论: BTC still needs to exit the channel and move upwards

评论: Exiting the channel and 86xx is on the table .
But note the 15 candle is on an 8 , when it hits a 9 we can expect a 1 to 4 candle pull back
which means up to a possible 90 minute pullback downwards

评论: Note : this could also be a bulltrap



评论: lots of mixed signals from BTC but my thought is we are going to move to 6k as Today ends the 1 to 4 day upward candle count

At the beginning of this thread , we came off a daily 9 candle which meant we had 1 to 4 days of upside then we go down as the weekly candle is bearish.
in about 6 hours the 4th day will end and we start the descent.
评论: Weekly cyrpto market session ends in 1 hour and 30 mins and a new Crypto weekly session will begin .
评论: This weeks market has kicked off ! starting with APAC ( Asia pacific and Australia)
评论: This could be a bullish move - theres a cup and handle forming

评论: if the current green handle can keep moving up the height of the red candle stick BTC is going to move forward with a lot of momentum .
评论: if entering wait for confirmation when BTC passes the 8623 resistance ( around 8700)
评论: if this a real cup and handle we should see a BTC breakout at the handle around 84xx
first target will be 84xx
second target 89xx
9300 is still the next target unless BTC - drops below 7800.

回复
Hello Myco, you previously stated on Feb 7 "Comment: There's still 1 to 4 days of potential upward movement so the 4k dump is not here yet. 7534 and 7337 should do their job". Is this still expected, 4k drop i.e.?
回复
mycotoxin Clueless13
@Clueless13, Great question theres 7 hours left for the third day then potentially one more day of upside, By upside I mean we can climb up from the 8100 location and but not necessarily go much higher than 9k.

I dont see 4K today i suspect BTC will lounge at the 8100 / 79xx area for a few hours and attempt a comeback before dropping a leg lower. 7543 and 7337 will do their job temporarily to stop any falls and we could end up closer to 7128.

- The 6K area s looks like its next in line to be tested ( click on the graph below ..its almost looks like the current location is dangling dangerously in mid-air and
begging to drop to 6k to complete the drop.

However note that BTC does not do double bottoms very well and is not a fan of these things. So my thoughts are we will end up in the upper or lower 5k area sometime next week .




(note this is not to be taking as trading advice as I could be 100% incorrect)
回复
Clueless13 mycotoxin
@mycotoxin, Thanks for the reply and in-depth explanation. Much appreciated.
回复
Dear Myco, who triggers the buying and who triggers the selling are the same group of whales. What can else account for the sudden stops both ways. They accumulate and distribute and repeat that over.
回复
BTC just passed the 8500 resistance (currently passing through 8680) while the Dow Jones index is still bearish. I think that the players from that market pass their money to the BTC as an escape from loss. Because of that two markets action, the BTC price was pumped up.... This is just my speculation, but from my research after three days, the same pattern always happened. BTC down - NASDAQ up and vice versa. Current BTC market is not healthy and sometime wastes my time for making decision because TA is not played well at this moment.
回复
Binance is down until 4 am(utc). Hopefully this deadline is real. Last 2 haven't been.
回复
mycotoxin Nhmenefee
@Nhmenefee, Thanks for the update
回复
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