On the Daily we can see momentum dying off on both the RSI and MACD. Even if this move was to continue, we could still expect a 30 - 50% correction to around 42000 - 40000.
Looking closer on the 4HR we can see a clearly defined 5 wave structure. We have divergence on both the MACD and RSI, although the Price Action isn’t behaving as if this move is done (lacking a sharp move lower from and highs and a high volume sell off).
Looking closer yet on the 1HR we see it broke the larger trend, formed a 3 wave ACB, with the high getting rejected with a sharp move lower. This could indicate a more solid retouch of the broken trend line, before continuing up. Or, back for a second retouch of the broken trend line (2)). Or even lower to a retest of the 46000 area. This would be supported by the fact that we have yet to see MACD divergence between waves A & C (1)). We will monitor the close for the next few candles for further confirmation.
Looking closer on the 4HR we can see a clearly defined 5 wave structure. We have divergence on both the MACD and RSI, although the Price Action isn’t behaving as if this move is done (lacking a sharp move lower from and highs and a high volume sell off).
Looking closer yet on the 1HR we see it broke the larger trend, formed a 3 wave ACB, with the high getting rejected with a sharp move lower. This could indicate a more solid retouch of the broken trend line, before continuing up. Or, back for a second retouch of the broken trend line (2)). Or even lower to a retest of the 46000 area. This would be supported by the fact that we have yet to see MACD divergence between waves A & C (1)). We will monitor the close for the next few candles for further confirmation.
评论:
The scenario played out as expected, we now have a second retouch of the broken trendline (2). Momentum is still building on this short move, which can indicate more downside. We can be on the lookout for a flag forming, with a further move down. Alternatively, the ABC is complete and we rally upwards for a test of the highs around the 50k mark. I see the former play as more likely, more selling to come into September