The importance of explanation of the basis

10月21日

(Title) The important thing in chart analysis is the explanation of the basis.

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You need to read the explanation below to understand the points, sections, and volatility periods that I'm talking about.

However, for those who don't need that, I'll briefly explain it first.

Support section
1st: 65920.71-67414.39
2nd: 61099.25-62540.0

Resistance section
68955.88-72078.1

The next volatility period is around November 7th, so the point to watch is which section of the section I mentioned above it is located in after passing this volatility period.

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(BTCUSDT 1D chart)

The StochRSI indicator is showing a downward trend after approaching the highest point (100).

The StochRSI indicator used in this chart is an indicator created by changing the formula of the general StochRSI indicator, so there may be a slight difference from the StochRSI indicator you are actually using.

The setting values ​​of the StochRSI indicator are 14, 7, 3, 3 (RSI, Stoch, K, D).

In any case, since the StochRSI indicator is showing a downward trend, it seems likely to lead to an additional decline.

However, if the StochRSI indicator has not fallen from the overbought zone, there is a possibility of a rebound, so it is necessary to check the support and resistance points formed at the current price position.

The current price seems to be located near the Mid (50) indicator and the HA-HIgh indicator is about to be newly created.

Therefore, if the HA-High indicator is created at the 67414.39 point, the support around that point is an important issue.

Since the HA-High indicator of the 1W chart is formed at the 65920.71 point, we can see that the important section is around 65920.71-67414.39.

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If the HA-HIgh indicator of the 1D chart is newly created, the HA-High of the 1D chart > HA-High of the 1W chart > HA-High of the 1M chart, so the regular array of the M-Signal indicator, which is a trend perspective, is expected to create a regular array from the post-trading perspective as well.

If this regular array state is created, it is more likely to create a new upward wave, so it is more advantageous to look at the market from a long (LONG) perspective.

Therefore, it is expected that the important point of observation will be where support is received at this initialization of the StochRSI indicator.

The initialization of the StochRSI indicator means moving from the overbought section -> oversold section, oversold section -> overbought section.

When this initialization process is performed,
- When falling from the overbought section,
- When located in the middle point,
- When rising from the oversold section,

Volatility is likely to occur when passing through the three areas above.

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Considering the importance of support and resistance points, the movement of the StochRSI indicator, and the M-Signal indicator, it is expected that the upward trend will continue if the price is maintained above 62540.0.

If possible, we should check if it can be supported and rise near 65920.71-67414.39.

If the BW (100) indicator on the 1D chart is not regenerated, it is expected that a full-scale uptrend will begin only when it rises above 72078.1.

Therefore, from the current price position, it is expected that how it will break through the 68955.88-72078.1 range will have a major impact on the future trend.

The next volatility period is around November 7.

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(1W chart)

If you look at the 1W chart, you can see a clearer movement than the 1D chart.

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I think trading is classifying the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts according to importance and creating a trading strategy accordingly.

This is what I said in the previous idea about why support and resistance points are important.

In order to classify the importance, you need to look at how densely the candles are arranged.

In other words, you need to look at how many sideways sections are created.


You can also use the Renko chart for this.

If you share and use this chart, the HA-High, HA-Low, BW (100), and BW (0) indicators form the most important support and resistance points when trading.

And the next important indicators are the Mid (50) and OBV 0 indicators.

To check this, draw the indicators formed on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts, and they will immediately act as support and resistance points.

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Although the coin market is a market that follows trends, you cannot know everything from the trend.

In other words, you need support and resistance points and the StochRSI indicator to check volatility.

If you don't check this, I don't think it's easy to check volatility.

I explained how to check trend lines and volatility periods with the previous idea.

I'll take the time to explain it again next time.

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Have a good time.
Thank you.

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- ​​Big picture

It is expected that a full-scale uptrend will start when it rises above 29K.

The section expected to touch in the next bull market is 81K-95K.

#BTCUSD 12M

1st: 44234.54
2nd: 61383.23
3rd: 89126.41
101875.70-106275.10 (overshooting)
4th: 134018.28
151166.97-157451.83 (overshooting)
5th: 178910.15

These are points where resistance is likely to occur in the future.
We need to check if these points can be broken upward.

We need to check the movement when this section is touched because I think a new trend can be created in the overshooting section.

#BTCUSD 1M

If the major uptrend continues until 2025, it is expected to start forming a pull back pattern after rising to around 57014.33.
1st: 43833.05
2nd: 32992.55

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10月21日

注释

If there is no sufficient explanation as to why you thought so, the subjective interpretation of the viewers may end up interpreting it differently from what you intended to say.

I think it is better to avoid this because it can lead to unnecessary arguments.

10月21日

注释

(USDT.D 1M chart)


(BTC.D 1M chart)


In order for the altcoin bull market to start, the BTC dominance must fall below 55.01 and remain there or show a downward trend.

At this time, if the USDT dominance remains below 4.97 or shows a downward trend, the coin market is expected to enter a bull market.

10月21日

注释

(BTCUSDT.P 1D chart)

I think there are almost no people who explain futures charts using 1D charts.

I think it is because futures trading is sensitive to volatility.

However, I am talking about the 1D chart because I think the trend of the 1D chart has an important meaning.

As the price moves up and down, you can see that the point where the HA-HIgh indicator of the 1D chart is newly created is moving.

Therefore, it is a good idea to check the support position when the HA-HIgh indicator of the 1D chart is created and think about a response plan accordingly.

In any case, since the support and resistance points are formed at 66750.0-67044.1, you can see that this section corresponds to the support section.

(1h chart)

Since it fell below the 5EMA of the 1D chart, the key is whether it can receive support near 66750.0-67044.1 and rise above the 5EMA of the 1D chart.

If not,
1st: 64716.7-65922.3
2nd: 61149.5
You should check for support near the 1st and 2nd above.

When rising
1st: 68447.9-69001.8
2nd: 70K
You should check for support near the 1st and 2nd above.

10月21日

注释

To set it similar to the StochRSI indicator that I use,
- Stochastic Length from 14 to 7
- RSI Source from Close to ohlc4
If you set it like the above, you will see a similar appearance.