I recognise a similar pattern from Nov 2018 when the price hit 4K, it flagged out for sometime and everyone waited for the retest that never came. Technically, and I need to say it, this is an inverted head and shoulders with a tiny left shoulder. And if it breaks bullish, it will form another INV HNS at 43k. Although, it’s possible the pattern isn’t finished. Also if it does break north of the falling wedge, then that target is back at 60k. So despite the messy pattern, this mimics the reversal pattern of 2018, only this one is faster.
However, to me it looks more like a stair step pattern, often trying to breakout of wedges and triangles, often failing and revisiting the lows. It looks rather weak. But a break above 39 is bullish.
Otherwise I will maintain bearish sentiment at this stage because the RSI has yet to print a reversal divergence on the daily. And because I violated my rule, and ignored it, and got burnt, I know better then to break my trading rules again in future. There is significant reversal divergence on the 4 hr, and sometimes that is enough, but daily would be nice, which means we might need to see a new low to tick that box, or a retest of 33-35
Last weekly candle inv hammer (bearish).
Also if this a rising wedge, which to me is generally a continuations pattern, the price is hugging the bottom side of the wedge. Which signifies the the bulls are doing the minimum to float the price.
Either way, I’m not certain on bull or bear yet until a clear break of 39 or 35. I’d be terribly annoyed if we go up, because I’ve been waiting for that retest on low volume.
See my related post to find out where I violated myself, hopefully so you don’t make the same mistake… also the 2018 bottom should be there
However, to me it looks more like a stair step pattern, often trying to breakout of wedges and triangles, often failing and revisiting the lows. It looks rather weak. But a break above 39 is bullish.
Otherwise I will maintain bearish sentiment at this stage because the RSI has yet to print a reversal divergence on the daily. And because I violated my rule, and ignored it, and got burnt, I know better then to break my trading rules again in future. There is significant reversal divergence on the 4 hr, and sometimes that is enough, but daily would be nice, which means we might need to see a new low to tick that box, or a retest of 33-35
Last weekly candle inv hammer (bearish).
Also if this a rising wedge, which to me is generally a continuations pattern, the price is hugging the bottom side of the wedge. Which signifies the the bulls are doing the minimum to float the price.
Either way, I’m not certain on bull or bear yet until a clear break of 39 or 35. I’d be terribly annoyed if we go up, because I’ve been waiting for that retest on low volume.
See my related post to find out where I violated myself, hopefully so you don’t make the same mistake… also the 2018 bottom should be there
