SimonMercier

BTCUSDT : 3K upgraded to highly probable

POLONIEX:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / Tether USD
Hi guys,

Since a month or so i keep seeing/posting this scenario :

Scenario C
  • Target : 2.5k-3k
  • Pattern : ABCDE correction. MACD 1D centerline crossover.
  • Factors of validation/invalidation : Staying in the bearish log spectrum. Invalidation if MACD 1D cross centerline from bottom
  • Opinion : very high probability
  • Comments : A powerful bearish signal have born few days ago when MACD 1D crossed the center line. A more powerful sell pressure is to be expected once/if the MACD signal (orange line) will cross the center line leading to at least -20% price change. Last time this structure happened BTC lost 10k (see price fluctuation between B and C)
  • Chart :
    1) original post
    2)

    Scenario D
  • Target : 17k
  • Pattern : inverted SHS or unknown/sideway
  • Factors of validations/invalidation : price sustain over MA 300 (6.9k or so). Probabilities grow if price sustain over 8250
  • Opinion : downgraded to low probability
  • Comments : this scenario exclude indicators and rely on hope (market sentiment)
  • Chart :


    How to be ready :
    Scenario C
  • Stop loss at 6.7k
  • Ladder in : 15% at 4.5k - 15% at 3.8k - 15% at 3.3k - 15% at 3k - 15% at 2.7k - 15% at 2.5k (total of 90%)
  • 10% in fiat

    Scenario D
  • Stop loss at 8250
  • Look to ladder in near 7k
交易开始: Update :
Pattern : 5,3,5 zigzag & signal analysis
Chart :
1)
2)
评论: NOte on the weekly chart : cloud turned green. BUt i would take precaution here. It could be an ebb flow of the current up in price from 6k to 11k. I would give more weight to the conversion line go under base line as they are momentum indicators.
交易开始: Prudence must taken here. The bearish zig zag pattern have a point C at fibo 0.618 for 9.5k or so and can be extended 9.7k. The chart is still respecting the rule of a bearish count (zigzag 5,3,5).

If BTC dont go above this level its gonna form good bearish signal as : double top & respecting the ABC of the zigzag.

Im not playing this but if I was in i would look to put my stop loss at 9k
评论: To picture my words about the zig zag count :
Thanks for your guidende Sir! :)
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@djtreacy, its a pleasure if i can help someone with the things i know
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Just wondering why not like this :) ?



or this..



Good luck Simon :)
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damdamm damdamm
@damdamm, FIRST IDEA: I MEANT LATEST UPDATE IN THIS IDEA.
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@damdamm, yopu should consider to redraw your trend line becuase the are not consistent. And use log chart for trend, more effectiv
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damdamm SimonMercier
@SimonMercier, ok thank you Simon
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Sorry to ask but is it your dream to fall to 2350 ? I mean would you be happy ? I think we will not go lower then 7k or 6k and after that will squeeze shit from shorters.

Not saying about targets but nice capital management.
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@damdamm, the point is about to stay objective and not wishing any specific targets and to apply te EW theory, chart pattern recognition which you react accordingly to your conclusion (and why you post your comment in 2 different post ?)
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damdamm SimonMercier
@SimonMercier, Sorry I wanted to write this under this post originally but made mistake between opened tabs with your different idea ! Sorry ;)
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