BTCUSDT : 3K upgraded to highly probable

Hi guys,

Since a month or so i keep seeing/posting this scenario :

Scenario C

• Target : 2.5k-3k
  
• Pattern : ABCDE correction. MACD 1D centerline crossover.
  
• Factors of validation/invalidation : Staying in the bearish log spectrum. Invalidation if MACD 1D cross centerline from bottom
  
• Opinion : very high probability
  
• Comments : A powerful bearish signal have born few days ago when MACD 1D crossed the center line. A more powerful sell pressure is to be expected once/if the MACD signal (orange line) will cross the center line leading to at least -20% price change. Last time this structure happened BTC lost 10k (see price fluctuation between B and C)
  
• Chart :
  1) original post
  2)
  
  
  Scenario D
  
• Target : 17k
  
• Pattern : inverted SHS or unknown/sideway
  
• Factors of validations/invalidation : price sustain over MA 300 (6.9k or so). Probabilities grow if price sustain over 8250
  
• Opinion : downgraded to low probability
  
• Comments : this scenario exclude indicators and rely on hope (market sentiment)
  
• Chart :
  
  
  
  How to be ready :
  Scenario C
  
• Stop loss at 6.7k
  
• Ladder in : 15% at 4.5k - 15% at 3.8k - 15% at 3.3k - 15% at 3k - 15% at 2.7k - 15% at 2.5k (total of 90%)
  
• 10% in fiat
  
  Scenario D
  
• Stop loss at 8250
  
• Look to ladder in near 7k
  

交易开始:

Update :
Pattern : 5,3,5 zigzag & signal analysis
Chart :
1)

2)

评论:

NOte on the weekly chart : cloud turned green. BUt i would take precaution here. It could be an ebb flow of the current up in price from 6k to 11k. I would give more weight to the conversion line go under base line as they are momentum indicators.

交易开始:

Prudence must taken here. The bearish zig zag pattern have a point C at fibo 0.618 for 9.5k or so and can be extended 9.7k. The chart is still respecting the rule of a bearish count (zigzag 5,3,5).

If BTC dont go above this level its gonna form good bearish signal as : double top & respecting the ABC of the zigzag.

Im not playing this but if I was in i would look to put my stop loss at 9k

评论:

To picture my words about the zig zag count :