Volatility Period: Around December 18-25

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(BTCUSDT chart)

(1W chart)

This period of volatility is expected to be between December 18th and 25th.

At this time, the key is whether it can rise above 45135.66.

If not, you should check whether a new HA-High indicator is created as it falls around 37253.81-38531.90.

(1D chart)

What you need to look at during this volatility period is whether it falls below the 39845.44-42053.66 range or rises above the 43823.59-45135.66 range.

Even if there is no major change in BTC's movement, what is important for now is whether BTC dominance can stop sideways and form a trend.

(BTC.D chart)

Currently, BTC dominance is located around 53.

Accordingly, I think the key is whether it falls below 50 or rises above 54.

This is because I believe that in order to create an altcoin bull market, BTC dominance must fall below 50 and USDT dominance must remain below 5.89.

(USDT chart)

I believe that funds are continuously flowing in through USDT.

(USDC chart)

In addition, USDC is also showing sideways movements, forming a box section.

I believe that this funding situation is sufficient grounds for volatility in the coin market.

In order to form a trend in the coin market, it usually begins with significant volatility.

Therefore, if significant volatility occurs during this period of volatility, a trend is expected to occur in either direction.

However, in order for the price to turn into a downward trend, it must fall below 39845.44 and show resistance.

If it shows support in the 37253.81-38531.90 range, it is expected that it will not be easy to turn into a downward trend as there is a possibility of creating a pull back pattern.

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- The big picture

The full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin when the price rises above 29K.

This is the section expected to be touched in the next bull market, 81K-95K.

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** All explanations are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.

** Trading volume is displayed as a candle body based on 10EMA.
How to display (in order from darkest to darkest)
More than 3 times the trading volume of 10EMA > 2.5 times > 2.0 times > 1.25 times > Trading volume below 10EMA

** Even if you know other people’s know-how, it takes a considerable amount of time to make it your own.

** This chart was created using my know-how.

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注释

#USDT 1D

I believe that the candles on the USDT chart are traces of USDT movement through transactions.

In other words, when the USDT candle rises, I think it means that USDT has been sold in the USDT market and distributed in large quantities.

Then, when the candle returns to its original position like the current candle, I think it means that it was purchased in the USDT market.

Therefore, it is believed that the funds were moved from a certain coin (token) to a certain coin (token).

It is expected that it will take at least 1-2 days for the current volatility to take shape.

注释

There is a lot of talk that prices will rise a lot and there will be a price adjustment.

However, now that prices are starting to fall, it seems like people are starting to say that this is not a price adjustment, but the beginning of a downward trend.

If you are swayed by this mentality, there is a high possibility that you will not be able to do anything.

The area around 43823.59 corresponds to a split sell point on the rise.

This split sell is a necessary step to stabilize the psychological state for this rally.

If no response is made at the 43823.59 point and it falls in the 39845.44-42053.66 range, an appropriate response is needed.

but,

1st: 37253.81-38531.90
2nd: 32917.17-34110.32
It is necessary to check whether it is supported in the first and second sections above.

Therefore, if you have not split and sold around 43823.59, you are likely to have difficulty creating a trading strategy.

“You should buy when prices fall and sell when prices rise.”

This is the most basic trading method in trading.

To explain this in more detail,

You should buy when the price falls and shows support and sideways movements.

And, when the price rises and can no longer renew the high point, that is, when it shows resistance, you should sell.

However, that is not usually the case.

The reason is greed.

Among the things you need in your trading is a stop loss point.

So, when the price rises and shows resistance, you cannot sell, and when it begins to decline, you often set a stop loss point and sell when it falls below that point.

I think it's okay because we're making a profit anyway, but the aftereffects are highly likely to result in an inability to respond properly at the next response point.

If you sell when it falls below the 39845.44-42053.66 range, you will not be able to easily buy it even if it shows support in the first and second ranges mentioned above.

This is because it makes you feel psychologically anxious because it is close to the selling point.

As mentioned earlier in the text, the current section corresponds to the period of installment purchases.

This buying period will provide a basis for buying when the decline progresses in the future and appears to be supported in the first or second section.

Therefore, even if the stock falls -20% due to aggressive buying, you should purchase at a level that will not cause psychological disturbance.

If people don't keep their foot in the door, even if the price falls and it's a good time to buy, the expectation that it will fall further prevents them from buying.

This also applies to me.

So, by purchasing to some extent, you should gain the power to buy when the price falls.

There is a saying that not holding any position is the same as trading.

However, it is not easy to follow these words and buy when a good buying time comes.

I think this is an area where psychological factors that experts can do come into play.

Therefore, general individual traders will need to dip their toes in the market to some extent to be able to buy when a good buying time comes.

The 39845.44-42053.66 section is the section where the MS-Signal (M-Signal in 1D chart) indicator is passing through.

Accordingly, this is a section where the trend is likely to change.

Therefore, this area represents an important support and resistance area.

However, in a situation where funds are continuously flowing into the coin market, if you think that the current decline will turn into a downward trend and sell everything or take a stop loss, you will create a pull back pattern and will not be able to respond properly when it rises. can.

Therefore, how you respond in the current section will have a big impact on future transactions.

注释

#BTCUSDT 1D

If you made additional purchases in the 39845.44-42053.66 range, you should check if it rises to the 43160.0-43823.59 range.

If there is no support around 42278.03 or resistance around 43160.0-43823.59, it is recommended to sell the additional purchased portion.

In particular, when there is resistance and falls around 43160.0-43823.59, you must sell existing coins (tokens) in installments to preserve profits.

The reason for selling in installments is to proceed as far as you can to stabilize your psychological state.

Psychological stability refers to the psychological disturbance that can occur when the price falls by more than -20%.

Since we have entered a period of volatility, I hope you respond well to maximize your profits.

注释

Although you would like to determine the exact trend through chart analysis, it is not easy to predict the current section because it is believed that buying is taking place taking advantage of investor sentiment.

If volatility increases without any issues, someone may think that they are selling due to psychological disturbance.

In other words, someone is continuously selling, whether they are taking profits, thinking the current is the high point, or selling in installments to prepare for a price adjustment.

There are people who are receiving this, but if the sales force increases, they may end up being pushed back without receiving all of it, so we must also sell in some installments to prevent psychological disturbance.

If you have enough cash, there is no need to sell.

This is because even if the price falls, it is expected to rise quickly.

注释

Renko charts are best used to identify trends or support and resistance points or zones.

Since regular candle charts show fakes or whipsaws, it can be difficult to interpret the chart, so I think it would be a good idea to refer to the Renko chart.

注释

Please check whether you receive support or resistance around 43160.0-43823.59 and respond well.

The 43160.0-43823.59 range corresponds to a psychological resistance range, so it is a range where profits need to be confirmed by selling in installments.

If the price appears to be maintained above 43823.59, there is a possibility that a full-fledged upward trend will begin.

However, since the 44200.0-47600.0 area is the secondary resistance area, you can make a big profit even if you check for support in this area and buy more.

Therefore, if you have not yet sold in installments in the 43160.0-43823.59 range, it is essential to sell in installments as much as you can to stabilize your psychological state.

注释

#BTCUSDT 1D

There was about 7% volatility during the volatility period.

It touched the 43160.0-43823.59 range and fell, but is showing support around 42278.03.

Accordingly, it is expected to lead to further attempts to rise above the 43160.0-43823.59 range.

This period of volatility is expected to last until around December 25th.

At this time, it is expected that whether it receives support or resistance around 43160.0-43823.59 will be an important issue.

If it falls below 41350.0 this time, it is expected to fall below 39845.44, so you need to think about a response plan.

注释

#BTCUSDT
(1M)

Both the StochRSI indicator and the BW indicator have entered the overbought zone.

Accordingly, caution is required as there is a possibility of a downward trend when the price exits the overbought zone.

(1W)

The StochRSI indicator fell from the overbought range.

However, since the BW indicator is located in the overbought zone, there is a possibility of creating a pull back pattern.

Accordingly, it is necessary to check how the BW indicator moves when the StochRSI indicator switches to an upward trend.

(1D)

The StochRSI indicator is rising in the oversold range,
The BW indicator is located in the overbought zone.

Accordingly, it appears that a pull back pattern is currently being created.

It is necessary to check whether the StochRSI indicator rises above 50 and enters the overbought zone.

(Combining multiple indicators, point 50 on the StochRSI indicator corresponds to point 0 on the TS-BW indicator.)

注释

#BTCUSDT

As the volatility period passes (around December 18-25), it is necessary to check if there is any movement outside the 39845.44-45135.66 range.

The 43160.0-43823.59 section is a psychological resistance zone and corresponds to the section where split sales will be made for the rise so far.

Even if large volatility (-20% to +20%) occurs when selling in installments, it is important to sell at a proportion that does not cause psychological disturbance.

The second resistance range is the 44200.0-47600.0 range, so if it receives support in this range and rises, it is expected to rise to around 59370.07, the HA-High indicator point on the 1W chart.

Therefore, even if you split and sell in the psychological resistance zone and then rise, you can respond depending on whether you receive support or resistance in the secondary resistance zone.

When the HA-High indicator on the 1W chart is touched, a full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin because the HA-High indicator has been touched on all time frame charts (1M, 1W, 1D).

Even if it rises like this and touches the HA-High indicator on the 1W chart and falls, it is likely to touch the HA-High indicator on the 1M chart again, so be careful about shaking it.

If it falls from the psychological resistance range of 43160.0-43823.59, that is, if it falls below 39845.44, a new HA-High indicator on the 1W chart is expected to be created.

If that happens, if the price is maintained near the HA-High indicator on the 1M chart, a full-fledged upward trend is expected to begin.

(USDT chart)

The basis for this is that it is believed that funds are continuously flowing into the coin market through USDT.

For an altcoin bull market to begin, BTC dominance must fall below 50 and remain there.

注释

In order for a full-fledged bull market to begin, it is expected that BTC dominance will begin to decline after reaching 61 or higher.

Accordingly, caution is required when trading altcoins.

注释

#USDC

To switch to an upward trend, it must rise above 26.525B.

To do so, it is necessary to confirm whether it can rise above 24.980B and be maintained.

USDC has a weak impact on the coin market, but may have a short-term impact.

Since the gap is continuously increasing this time, it is believed that funds are continuously flowing into the coin market.

注释

#BTCUSDT 1D

The key is whether the price can be maintained by rising to the second resistance range of 44200.0-47600.0.

In particular, it is necessary to check whether support can be obtained above 45135.66.

If it falls below 43160.0-43823.59 and shows resistance, it may lead to a further decline.

As the price rises, the turning point into a short-term downtrend is expected to begin when it falls below the 41350.0 point.

However, if it is still supported around 37253.81-38531.90, I think there is a high possibility of creating a pullback pattern from a mid- to long-term perspective.

(1W)

Even when the HA-High indicator on the 1M chart was touched, the price rose to the price where the HA-High indicator was located.

The key is whether it will continue to rise and touch the HA-High indicator on the 1W chart.

If not, I think it is highly likely that a shakeup will occur around the current range, that is, 43823.59-46431.5.

Trading cannot be done based on these predictions, but rather through trading strategies.

Therefore, you need to create a trading strategy and respond to the support and resistance points or sections you consider.

In trading, we must not forget that predictions obtained through chart analysis are not necessary.

trading strategy
1. Investment period
2. Investment size
3. Trading method and profit realization method
This can be achieved by planning the three things above.

Among these, the most important are 1. Investment period.

Since everything changes depending on the investment period, you must select which coin (token) to trade and for how long the investment period through chart analysis.

Then decide the size of your investment based on your investment horizon.

And, you need to create an actual trading method based on support and resistance points or sections.

At this time, the important thing is to think about ways to reduce losses and create a trading method, that is, a trading strategy.

If you can't think of a way to prevent losses, I think the best way is not to trade.

When in an uptrend or bull market, it is recommended to buy when the candle on the 1D chart is a downward candle.

It is risky to buy when the price rises due to breakout trading, so it is recommended to proceed only when it breaks through important support and resistance points or sections.

注释

#USDT

#USDC

It appears that USDC has not yet fallen by a large gap.

If the gap decline does not progress further, the coin market is expected to rise again.

USDC may influence the coin market in the short term, but ultimately larger trends are expected to be influenced by USDT's fund movements.

注释

#USDT 1D

#USDC 1D

The gap between USDT and USDC increased together.

In particular, the gap in USDC has risen by more than 24.98B, showing a short-term upward trend.

Funds flowing in through USDC are likely to have a short-term impact on the coin market because the USDC market is not as active as the USDT market.

However, since BTC and ETH trading pairs exist in the USDC market, you can see that the possibility of purchasing BTC or ETH has increased.

It is important to trade in accordance with the movements of institutions and forces.

注释

#BTCUSDT 1D

This period of volatility runs until December 26th.

The fluctuation range during this volatility period is 39845.44-45135.66.

Therefore, the key is whether it deviates from this section.

Otherwise, you will end up going sideways.

The next period of volatility will be around January 16th.

However, there is a period of mild volatility between around January 1st and around January 5th.

The range during this volatility period is 41350.0-46431.50.

I think the 43160.0-43823.59 section is a psychological resistance zone.

Therefore, it is a split sale section.

注释

#USDT

#USDC

#BTC.D

#USDT.D

What is important to look at in the current trend is BTC dominance.

The key question is whether BTC dominance can continue to decline and fall below 50.

If BTC Dominus falls below 50, there is a possibility that an altcoin bull market will begin.

However, USDT dominance must be below 5.89.

An altcoin bull market refers to a bull market in which you can make a profit no matter what altcoin you buy.

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