I’m sharing a possible irregular flat correction that could pull BTC toward ~62,513—only if two key trend supports break.
Note: This Elliott count differs from my main count. It’s my secondary scenario—lower conviction, but it deserves close attention because the structure is developing cleanly. This does not mean BTC is going down (it's just a watch out scenario)
The story so far
From the Nov 22, 2022 low, BTC ran a full 5-wave impulse.
Wave 3 was the extended one.
Wave 4 formed a triangle.
Wave 5 ran hotter than expected (roughly the size of Wave 3). That’s unusual, likely fueled by extreme Bollinger Band Width compression before the final push.
Why this matters: when Wave 3 extends, Wave 5 is usually shorter. It isn’t a hard rule—just a guideline—so this count stays on the board, but it’s not a high-conviction setup.
What I think is happening now
The drop and bounce look like an expanded (irregular) flat: (A) down, (B) up which was our All time high, C down.
If the pattern completes, C could target ~62,513.
Quick pattern note (irregular flat): It’s a 3–3–5 structure — A = 3 waves, B = 3 waves (often pokes above the prior high), and C = 5 waves. On this chart, A and B already printed as 3 + 3. The setup isn’t confirmed until we see C unfold as a clear 5-wave move (1-2-3-4-5). No five-wave C = no completed irregular flat.
What would confirm it (the “if/then”)
Lose the first rising trend support (≈ 109k).
Then lose the second, deeper trend support.
If both break, the path toward ~62.5k could be opening up.
Between those two lines: BTC can go sideways for a weeks—that “range box” is important.
Why the range box matters (Altseason meter)
Altcoins usually need steady BTC to fly:
BTC sideways (not spiking up or dumping).
TOTAL2 (alt mkt cap) breaks ATH.
BTC.D rolls over (dominance falls).
If these three line up, we’ve got a real altseason setup. If not, it’s noise.
Bottom line
This is a watchlist scenario, not gospel.
I’ll respect the levels: no break = no bear target.
If we range between supports, I’ll look for alt strength while BTC stays calm.
Note: This Elliott count differs from my main count. It’s my secondary scenario—lower conviction, but it deserves close attention because the structure is developing cleanly. This does not mean BTC is going down (it's just a watch out scenario)
The story so far
From the Nov 22, 2022 low, BTC ran a full 5-wave impulse.
Wave 3 was the extended one.
Wave 4 formed a triangle.
Wave 5 ran hotter than expected (roughly the size of Wave 3). That’s unusual, likely fueled by extreme Bollinger Band Width compression before the final push.
Why this matters: when Wave 3 extends, Wave 5 is usually shorter. It isn’t a hard rule—just a guideline—so this count stays on the board, but it’s not a high-conviction setup.
What I think is happening now
The drop and bounce look like an expanded (irregular) flat: (A) down, (B) up which was our All time high, C down.
If the pattern completes, C could target ~62,513.
Quick pattern note (irregular flat): It’s a 3–3–5 structure — A = 3 waves, B = 3 waves (often pokes above the prior high), and C = 5 waves. On this chart, A and B already printed as 3 + 3. The setup isn’t confirmed until we see C unfold as a clear 5-wave move (1-2-3-4-5). No five-wave C = no completed irregular flat.
What would confirm it (the “if/then”)
Lose the first rising trend support (≈ 109k).
Then lose the second, deeper trend support.
If both break, the path toward ~62.5k could be opening up.
Between those two lines: BTC can go sideways for a weeks—that “range box” is important.
Why the range box matters (Altseason meter)
Altcoins usually need steady BTC to fly:
BTC sideways (not spiking up or dumping).
TOTAL2 (alt mkt cap) breaks ATH.
BTC.D rolls over (dominance falls).
If these three line up, we’ve got a real altseason setup. If not, it’s noise.
Bottom line
This is a watchlist scenario, not gospel.
I’ll respect the levels: no break = no bear target.
If we range between supports, I’ll look for alt strength while BTC stays calm.
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Join our telegram:
t.me/cryptoships95
Join our free signals channel:
t.me/+j4Io4X_gSUlhM2U0
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t.me/cryptoships95
Join our free signals channel:
t.me/+j4Io4X_gSUlhM2U0
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Trading is better when it’s shared
Join our telegram:
t.me/cryptoships95
Join our free signals channel:
t.me/+j4Io4X_gSUlhM2U0
Join our telegram:
t.me/cryptoships95
Join our free signals channel:
t.me/+j4Io4X_gSUlhM2U0
相关出版物
免责声明
这些信息和出版物并不意味着也不构成TradingView提供或认可的金融、投资、交易或其它类型的建议或背书。请在使用条款阅读更多信息。