BTSUSDT, current downtrend form 18th december
Hope the chart will be ok for reading... Please feel free to comment and help me better understand :)
And this is an idea, not an advice !
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BTCUSDT Bittrex, Daily candle
Data to look at: pink lines + yellow line + Fib retracement from June 2017 + indicators.
BTC is falling since it's ATH from 18th december (19'900 $), following first a possible symmetrical triangle initiated in 22th december.
But looks like today's news from China have broken the resistance line of this triangle.
Actually :
- SMMA 7 is crossing down SMMA 20 ; both are still far from SMMA 70, that would then be a test zone to follow for possible trend reversal, if reached ; both indicates bearish still active ;
- MACD is still in downtrend, with still power to loose ;
- Stochastic may show a possible trend reversal, but this indicator is quiet sensistive I think, so it can easily moves ;
- ADX indicates continuation of current bearish movement ;
- RSI is low, and can still decrease before entering oversold zone ;
- Volumes OBV have been kept constant since the beginning of the triangle initiation.
I think bears are still active, targeting the following resistances :
1. 10'800 $ as begining of the broken triangle from 12th ;
2. SMMA70, to follow : around 10'800 $ now, slight increase still possible ;
3. Resistance of uptrend channel from 15th september (yellow line) ;
5. 7'700 - 8'400 $ as a fight zone around Fib 1.618 + local previous local high/low + resistance of uptrend channel since 15th september (currently around 5'000 $, follow the line for update).
Lower values would broke this 15th sep channel, next one would be :
6. Around 5'000 $, resistance of ascending channel from june 17.
A pattern like three black crows in candles (saying we are in first), resulting from today's news on regulation (see China and Germany) could bring us to target 3 - channel 15th september, yellow line to follow.
What do you think ?
And this is an idea, not an advice !
______________
BTCUSDT Bittrex, Daily candle
Data to look at: pink lines + yellow line + Fib retracement from June 2017 + indicators.
BTC is falling since it's ATH from 18th december (19'900 $), following first a possible symmetrical triangle initiated in 22th december.
But looks like today's news from China have broken the resistance line of this triangle.
Actually :
- SMMA 7 is crossing down SMMA 20 ; both are still far from SMMA 70, that would then be a test zone to follow for possible trend reversal, if reached ; both indicates bearish still active ;
- MACD is still in downtrend, with still power to loose ;
- Stochastic may show a possible trend reversal, but this indicator is quiet sensistive I think, so it can easily moves ;
- ADX indicates continuation of current bearish movement ;
- RSI is low, and can still decrease before entering oversold zone ;
- Volumes OBV have been kept constant since the beginning of the triangle initiation.
I think bears are still active, targeting the following resistances :
1. 10'800 $ as begining of the broken triangle from 12th ;
2. SMMA70, to follow : around 10'800 $ now, slight increase still possible ;
3. Resistance of uptrend channel from 15th september (yellow line) ;
5. 7'700 - 8'400 $ as a fight zone around Fib 1.618 + local previous local high/low + resistance of uptrend channel since 15th september (currently around 5'000 $, follow the line for update).
Lower values would broke this 15th sep channel, next one would be :
6. Around 5'000 $, resistance of ascending channel from june 17.
A pattern like three black crows in candles (saying we are in first), resulting from today's news on regulation (see China and Germany) could bring us to target 3 - channel 15th september, yellow line to follow.
What do you think ?
评论:
Target 3 and 5 (missing 4 in my idea... :) ) reached
2. Target 2 reached (error in the previous text, SMMA 70 was 10'000 at the time of writing, not 10'800 $)