Eyes on the weekly open!

2022年1月9日

Up to a new trading week! Its time for a reversal upwards into at least some sort of a short term bounce, problem remains the high open interest on (leveraged) longs. As a bull you need to understand that leveraged bears are your friend and leveraged bulls are your enemy. Too many leveraged longs only serve as exit liquidity for big players (that are still in profit) as well as market maker shorts. Remember the market maker is always on the opposite side of the contract. So what can we expect this week?

Well, for sure, we will see some sort of test towards the upside towards the 43K zone and if it holds we should test key resistance at 45K as well. However, when and how this will happen will determine if this is a true trend or just a dead cat bounce (short term bounce and a further dump to the downside). What the bulls want to see are the following scenarios:

- Bearish price action today and possibly leading into monday as well with a possible reversal to the upside on Tuesday and Wednesday after a last test of the order block in the 40K zone. (scenario 3)
- Green price action today, coming back down this evening, pick up BTC1! at the start of the Asian session and going into scenario 3.

A bearish outlook would give us the following scenario:
- A short term red opening of the trading week, tapping liquidity below before a massive impulse to the upside on Monday and Tuesday tapping key resistance around 45K by Wednesday. The whole market will bounce hard, retail will be euphoric, I already see the "you sold the bottom" posts incoming... Though Wednesday and the stock market will determine if that "bottom" was really the bottom. If(!) we get rejected at 45K and form a peak formation there we could definitely end the week red and BTC could drop below 40K, invalidating the "bottom" and potentially finally taking out the remaining leverage longs that have been built over the last 4 to 6 weeks(!). (scenario 4)

Both scenarios are plausible, however I tag this idea as long because of the short term bounce that is expected for the market regardless of what happens in the mid term. I do not think touching leverage is a good idea nor will it be helpful for your hodl positions, if you still have any. We want to look out for the scenarios above and react instead of predict and pay special attention to the stock markets across the globe for the coming week!

Good luck!

IMPORTANT: this is not financial advice, trade or invest based on your own risk and research.

2022年1月10日

注释

Its clockwork guys, im not sitting in front of chart almsot 24/7 without any results ;)

2022年1月11日

注释

Off you go bitcoin!

2022年1月13日

注释

Classic bull trap in the New York session. Normally a retrace to current price level 43100 is totally normal and healthy. However we are wicking below and if we reject it, we will go for the 42K zone. Thats also fine, as you can see I expected that retest. Rejecting 42K and dropping into the order block and staying in it is very bearish. It means the current block of buyers is exhausted and I already seen in the order book that a new block is forming around 38/39K zone. Lots of spoofing (fake orders) though so we cant determine support just yet, just current state of affairs. For now, no worries yet, just a healthy little retrace.