Actually European economy is not at its brightest situation. If it was the case, ECB President Draghi would claim that ECB was ready to launch a european QE.
With th end of US QE3, the tappering, a possible increase of interest rate by US even though THIS WILL NOT OCCUR before 1Q15 at the earliest, a possible deflation in Europe, There is nothing yet to fuel the market, and one can easily understand that since QE1+QE2+QE3 and EC's LTRO market went from 2700 to 46XX.
Therefore, at least for the sake of a good economy, traders will take their benefit and wait for EC's QE.
On the technical level, We are in front of a nice Double top. FIb retracement start in Sept 2012 with FEd's QE3.
The best situation would be Target 1. The optimum will be very much bellow the neck line i.e bellow 4145 at around 3868. Worst case scenario is bellow 50% retracement at 36XX or 3420.
At least it would be a legitimate ground for ECB to launch its European QE, but I am not sure if the market would be able to stay at 3420 and would go even bellow. If that is the case, it would be very difficult to put up pressure and steam in the market with EC's first QE. But let's see.
With th end of US QE3, the tappering, a possible increase of interest rate by US even though THIS WILL NOT OCCUR before 1Q15 at the earliest, a possible deflation in Europe, There is nothing yet to fuel the market, and one can easily understand that since QE1+QE2+QE3 and EC's LTRO market went from 2700 to 46XX.
Therefore, at least for the sake of a good economy, traders will take their benefit and wait for EC's QE.
On the technical level, We are in front of a nice Double top. FIb retracement start in Sept 2012 with FEd's QE3.
The best situation would be Target 1. The optimum will be very much bellow the neck line i.e bellow 4145 at around 3868. Worst case scenario is bellow 50% retracement at 36XX or 3420.
At least it would be a legitimate ground for ECB to launch its European QE, but I am not sure if the market would be able to stay at 3420 and would go even bellow. If that is the case, it would be very difficult to put up pressure and steam in the market with EC's first QE. But let's see.
