why I like this trade: CAD perspective: - CAD employment report with a BLOWOUT number (again!) with +150k jobs created (most of them fulltime)! - BOC on hold but another job report like this and they will feel pressure for more rate hikes - inflation falling in canada but core remains sticky (so far) - migration is booming creating growth for GDP and housing - housing so far steady (but a clear risk for sure) - oil with upwards potential
CHF perspective: - Swiss inflation is falling (although the CPI number today will beat the market expectations of 2.9% YY) - SNB will hike 1 or max 2 times this year and then close their hiking cycle as inflation will get back to their target in H2 2023 - SNB have become sligthly more tolerant for CHF depreciation as shown in their FX sales numbers - Trendfollowing Algos are heavily short CADCHF, they need to be squezzed out like a lemon
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As forecasted the Swiss CPI numbers beat the market expectations with a 3.3% YY reading.