Crude Oil since the US Presidential Election vs Ukraine
已更新
Just a commentary about President Biden's Press Secretary saying that the Ukraine situation has caused oil prices to be elevated.
The advance from the lockdown/reopening may have been a much more important factor in the current market price.
The fear that investments in new oil refining wouldn't generate a return with an administration vehemently against oil has prevented projects from getting funded. Projects have a long time line from start to finish, measured in years.
The price had tumbled to generational buy levels in the wake of the Covid Lockdown response and economic stagnation in 2020-2021. So the natural rebound would have taken us back to this level anyway.
It's an interesting picture to see how the market moved versus how people are saying the market has moved.
IF the price goes back UNDER the Ukraine level of February 24th, then you can rightly assume that a large correction and wipe-out of speculators is underway.
The idea of this chart is that NEWS is important to graph so you can see the level where it happened. That NEWS level will be key on any future revisits to that level. It is the foundational idea behind "Key Hidden Levels" where we graph the Earnings Day on our charts to help us define low risk, high reward potential trade setups.
Tim
9:52AM EDT May 19, 2022
The advance from the lockdown/reopening may have been a much more important factor in the current market price.
The fear that investments in new oil refining wouldn't generate a return with an administration vehemently against oil has prevented projects from getting funded. Projects have a long time line from start to finish, measured in years.
The price had tumbled to generational buy levels in the wake of the Covid Lockdown response and economic stagnation in 2020-2021. So the natural rebound would have taken us back to this level anyway.
It's an interesting picture to see how the market moved versus how people are saying the market has moved.
IF the price goes back UNDER the Ukraine level of February 24th, then you can rightly assume that a large correction and wipe-out of speculators is underway.
The idea of this chart is that NEWS is important to graph so you can see the level where it happened. That NEWS level will be key on any future revisits to that level. It is the foundational idea behind "Key Hidden Levels" where we graph the Earnings Day on our charts to help us define low risk, high reward potential trade setups.
Tim
9:52AM EDT May 19, 2022
注释
Interesting point that from Feb 24th when Russia invaded Ukraine, the price of oil has just oscillated around that $93 price, from +$122 down to $76 which is +29 to -16.The current administration would have you think that Ukraine is the reason for the elevated price of crude oil, but the facts would suggest otherwise. The price of crude was already at $93-$94 when the invasion happened and now it is $16 lower, suggesting the market is more concerned about recession from the many Fed hikes in interest rates.
Think for yourself and study the facts.
Be well.
Tim. 12:11PM 9/27/2022 EDT
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