May Oil contract rolls Apr 20. Expect a gap!
Open Interest is currently 2.22m (Mar 28 CFTC Reports)
Time Line: Mar 28, Mar 21, Mar 14, Mar 7, Feb 28
K (000's)
Producer Longs: 410, 416, 402, 342, 323
Prdcr Shorts: 663, 678, 674, 663, 661
Prdcr Net: 253, 262, 272, 321, 338
Money Manager Longs: 345, 361, 384, 418, 429, 449
MM Shorts: 135, 128, 129, 61, 61, 44
MM Net: 210, 233, 255, 357, 368, 405
The tables suggest both producers and MM's have reduced their May positions around March 7+
They have rolled forward - longer months have risen and increased :=+40 pts
The OI is total all months out to 2021. Current month (May) is 586k
My chart says this contract is still long.
My Weekly chart says old Support now Resistance was circa $53 and my rising channel base is circa $51.
The ellipse at $52 is possible as there is minimal resistance in front of us to $53.30
In any event this contract only has about 12 Trading Days tops before I move to Jul (N) which is circa 80 pts+ on May.
So $2.00 (4%) in <12 days
Open Interest is currently 2.22m (Mar 28 CFTC Reports)
Time Line: Mar 28, Mar 21, Mar 14, Mar 7, Feb 28
K (000's)
Producer Longs: 410, 416, 402, 342, 323
Prdcr Shorts: 663, 678, 674, 663, 661
Prdcr Net: 253, 262, 272, 321, 338
Money Manager Longs: 345, 361, 384, 418, 429, 449
MM Shorts: 135, 128, 129, 61, 61, 44
MM Net: 210, 233, 255, 357, 368, 405
The tables suggest both producers and MM's have reduced their May positions around March 7+
They have rolled forward - longer months have risen and increased :=+40 pts
The OI is total all months out to 2021. Current month (May) is 586k
My chart says this contract is still long.
My Weekly chart says old Support now Resistance was circa $53 and my rising channel base is circa $51.
The ellipse at $52 is possible as there is minimal resistance in front of us to $53.30
In any event this contract only has about 12 Trading Days tops before I move to Jul (N) which is circa 80 pts+ on May.
So $2.00 (4%) in <12 days
