Carvana is setting up for a drop

5月23日

I believe CVNA is printing expanding triangle as wave 4 in larger 5.

If this count is correct, currently wave D of triangle is close to its end and soon, around $325-340, the trend should reverse and go down to complete the triangle with wave E which will erase >60% of market cap.

After this move the stock is expected to climb up again.

5月23日

注释

And I like the divergencies on RSI and MACD on weekly

6月2日

注释

Despite price came quite close to from where it expected to drop, currently I don't see signs to fall.
Candlesticks on daily and weekly frames look quite bullish.
Will see how price develops this week.

6月9日

交易开始

CVNA sets up at -3% pre-market now and this is right at the upper triangle edge (black). Entering short here with the target at $274 as 38.2% retracement on linear scale of wave D.

There is also a chance that wave D is actually a new impulse wave but I very doubt it and stick to the triangle option.

6月10日

订单已取消

I don't like price action here, specifically, daily candlesticks, and it will be no surprise if CVNA goes up more. I believe I was wrong here with drawing expanding triangle too early. It was an expanding flat instead. This guess has not played out, so I cancel the idea.