DAX: OUTLOOK and LONG-TERM toughts!#Fundamentals
已更新
Hey tradomaniacs,
welcome to another OUTLOOK for DAX!
This time we look at time-cycles and the very big picture!
We are currently in a very crucial situation as you all probably know looking at the finanical policy
of the central banks whose lowered the interest rates in order to flood the market with liquidity since the financial crisis in 2008.
They were trying to rescue the economy and trusted in investments and more consume. IT WORKED! Perfectly.. but what are the consequences?
It looks like they were shifting the problem. 11 years later in 2019 we slowly seem to feel the consequences.
Fundamentals:
1. FED began to increase the interest rate too early. Economy not as stable as expected!
The current interest rate is at the "neutral point" and does not support or damage the economy.
2. Cool down is noticeable but still "ignored " by the market! Important data such as PMI, CPI and so on are
showing worse and worse results. First real reaction was last friday after GERMANYS PMI with the worst result since 2012!
3. Market sees the tradewar as "guiltier". Still hoping a deal between USA and CHINA would safe the markets and push
the economy!
4. Yield-Curves about to invert! If low-term-credits are more expensive than long-term-credits banks won`t have
any reasons for lending! They would make no profit with this business anymore. This would cause less liquidity!
5. Bonds going up! Safe haven?
There are way more fundamentals but I think these points will be enough to show you the circumstances..
Technical Aspects:
The current time-lime is showing the center of the current cycle almost reaching its peak.
Since then we were not really able to continue the journey upwards and Wave 5 seems to be complete.
Comparing the current impulse-phase with the previous ones we see that there is not a noteworthy continuation of the rally.
Wave 5 is almost @ the peak of Wave 5 and the distance has never been that low before.
We`ve reached the 161% Fib-extension-level and it looks like the previous attempt to continue was where
the market safed the profit!
Looking at the different Sin-Waves you`ll notice that the previous cycle has been bullish. Though that fact the
price did not really climb compared to the previous cycles showing weakness of the bulls.
The next cycle, starting @ August is a complete confirmed Bear-Cycle and could cause a huge sell-off if circumstance
don`t change!
Every crisis has been confirmed by a breakout through the trendline and a MAC-D with bearish signals!
The RSI is also showing a divergence and is almost oversold.
However.. what do you think will happen? =)
---------------------------------------------------------
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me.
Any questions? PM me. :-)
welcome to another OUTLOOK for DAX!
This time we look at time-cycles and the very big picture!
We are currently in a very crucial situation as you all probably know looking at the finanical policy
of the central banks whose lowered the interest rates in order to flood the market with liquidity since the financial crisis in 2008.
They were trying to rescue the economy and trusted in investments and more consume. IT WORKED! Perfectly.. but what are the consequences?
It looks like they were shifting the problem. 11 years later in 2019 we slowly seem to feel the consequences.
Fundamentals:
1. FED began to increase the interest rate too early. Economy not as stable as expected!
The current interest rate is at the "neutral point" and does not support or damage the economy.
2. Cool down is noticeable but still "ignored " by the market! Important data such as PMI, CPI and so on are
showing worse and worse results. First real reaction was last friday after GERMANYS PMI with the worst result since 2012!
3. Market sees the tradewar as "guiltier". Still hoping a deal between USA and CHINA would safe the markets and push
the economy!
4. Yield-Curves about to invert! If low-term-credits are more expensive than long-term-credits banks won`t have
any reasons for lending! They would make no profit with this business anymore. This would cause less liquidity!
5. Bonds going up! Safe haven?
There are way more fundamentals but I think these points will be enough to show you the circumstances..
Technical Aspects:
The current time-lime is showing the center of the current cycle almost reaching its peak.
Since then we were not really able to continue the journey upwards and Wave 5 seems to be complete.
Comparing the current impulse-phase with the previous ones we see that there is not a noteworthy continuation of the rally.
Wave 5 is almost @ the peak of Wave 5 and the distance has never been that low before.
We`ve reached the 161% Fib-extension-level and it looks like the previous attempt to continue was where
the market safed the profit!
Looking at the different Sin-Waves you`ll notice that the previous cycle has been bullish. Though that fact the
price did not really climb compared to the previous cycles showing weakness of the bulls.
The next cycle, starting @ August is a complete confirmed Bear-Cycle and could cause a huge sell-off if circumstance
don`t change!
Every crisis has been confirmed by a breakout through the trendline and a MAC-D with bearish signals!
The RSI is also showing a divergence and is almost oversold.
However.. what do you think will happen? =)
---------------------------------------------------------
Peace and good trades
Irasor
Wanna see more? Don`t forget to follow me.
Any questions? PM me. :-)
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