Timing is a ____________ sometimes...

Hard not to get excited when you see an asset so undervalued.

And for long term investors.

Buffett says if you aren't willing to hold an asset 50% down this game isn't for you.

And he's right if you have a long time horizon just hold and add.

I am just a trader. I cannot see siting a whole quarter at a loss when there's opportunity elsewhere.

But these two ChARTs have me very excited about 2025-26...

DG broke the bear flag and is heading to $65 which makes total sense because there's so many stop losses always sitting in the worst most obvious areas.

This is what many traders who try and sound smarter than they are do by inventing terminology to create their explanation of what's happening to sell you a course on how to trade. Liquidity pools, fair value gaps, the list goes on and on. It's age old same ol' same ol' happenings. Whatever way you to try to explain it.

It's just smart large money running their business and you have to think like them. If you had a few billion. You too could open two accounts. Set buy orders right next to stop loss sell orders you know are sitting right next to your buy orders. You just have to get the asset to get to that price, Now your market making business keeps scalping and going short at the same time. You sell the market down to the target price. You get the shares you desire. Because you've been accumulating the last 25% down slowly because you will move the market if you tried to buy the pico bottom..

But retail traders and ChARTist have the edge if you know what to look for.

You just react the the information on the ChARTs without emotion or ideology. You trust the ChARTs and this is the hardest part. Because your brain and you heart will be in two areas. Your heart will say this is a good investment. This is going up. Dollar General is the next big play and I don't want to miss out. And it very well may be. But even so. If I see it going lower by 10% why would I hold it despite the information? To me even as an "investor" if I could buy 10% more shares than I have based on the facts that now present themselves on the ChART why would I hold? Because people who think ChARTs are hocus pocus make excuses as to why you can't time this or that. You'll never catch the bottom. But when you have placed 100's of millions of dollars of trades 100's of times a day over the past 781 trading sessions you say. BULLCHIT! I have done it 60% of the time everyday. Yeah I mess up 40% because I am human and my brain farts. But that doesn't mean the ChARTs don't work. It means my ability to asses the information in real time is subpar... Because hindsight is ALWAYS 20/20 and you can always clearly see what you missed. Which is totally different than in life because life doesn't have indicators that you can visualize on a screen. Real life indicators are similar and called discernment and memories. But when you can decipher reality based on price action you can indeed predict the future price "HENCE WHY YOU CAN EVEN TRADE FUTURES"... IT'S LITTERALY IN THE NAME! But I digress... So when people say well if ChARTs work then everyone would be rich. NO! Because I will not decipher the truths of the ChARTs perfectly nor will I discern great decisions at every turn in life. There will be mistakes. But you CAN get better with much practice and after making many mistakes!!! The only way to win is to fail and the ONLY WINNERS ARE FAILURES WHO DIDN'T QUIT!

So what are the facts? DG broke out of a confirmed bear flag (YELLOW ARROW OF LEFTHAND ChART) inside of a potential falling wedge. This is a very bullish set up building steam but this type of play will be less sexy for most traders because Dollar General is "old world" brick and motor. And people get caught up in hype of Bitcoin, AI, and Robots MUCH FASTER than retail chains located on the back roads of America. But this type of play is a hedge and investment funds dream. They know businesses like this do not trade for 11 PE Ratios for very long. But volume WILL come. Because earnings is coming March 13th... Which will correspond to the building of a head of the bottoming inverse head and shoulder pattern.

So I cleared my board and a regrouping. After much study I clearly see two assets that are uncorrelated and moving in opposing cycles. (FOR NOW) Silver and DG... I don't feel in my element ChARTing 80 different assets. I feel like you miss things when you spread yourself to thin.

So I will be day trading NVDA until wash sale time and will move to AMZN...

Then focusing longer swings on SIVR "Just because screw BlACKROCK " and DG...

You can clearly see a 3 day bullish divergence on silver inside this channel we've been bouncing around. The asset is ready to test the upper band. So Q1 2025 longing SIVR into spring. Looking for an entry pre earning on DG because you will miss the trade if you are scared to hold through earnings. With a set up like this there would be no way but up. This is when BOTS and ALGOS will liquidate all short sellers stops. Taking DG from $65 back to $80 in a brisk fashion. Before turning the $72 area into support after testing summer 2025. So in closing DG will probably return to the $115 area to test resistance of the breakdown late 2025 early 2026.

A lot of consolidation until then.

This is still a great long term hold. But you must stomach the volatility. So size matters here. I was trading way too big coming off that last bottom and was late. Paid a 60k stupid tax for doing so. Timing was off. Haven't swing traded in 3 years. Only day trades. So slowing my brain down to higher time frames has been a challenge. You know. I mean you hold 50 or a 100 shares and it goes down $10 well it sucks but not like holding 10,000 shares. Play stupid games win stupid prizes as they say. Trade small trade often. So this go around I think 2000 shares will be the max size I will look to hold so I can sleep at night.

Longing SIVR to $35 around mid March... (24%)

Scaling out and adding DG before earnings and riding to $80 and then regrouping on both. (22%)

Trading NVDA for daily bread along the way...

This is where I will be...

You gotta be fluid. Hold ideas very loosely in markets. When tides shift, don't fight it!