I'm seeing a lot of TA's right now that call for exuberant highs and unrealistic lows. It's sort of bothering me so I want to post this as a reminder for others to be mindful of not getting too wrapped up in the hype or FUD. You can have conservative markers (both long or short) and still make a ton of money in this space. So, with that being said, let's rid ourselves of "observational only" or emotional outlooks and take a closer look at what could realistically happen. After all, the purpose of TA is to help weigh out the probabilities in real time for the most likely outcome so we can plan trades accordingly and find good entries and exits as well as prevent any panic or greed. This is something that I am still reminding myself of daily and want to encourage other traders out there to keep a healthy perspective so you can make wise moves in this volatile market.
The way I am seeing things currently:
We found our bottom at 80ish sats and started the first Elliot wave up. The Bitcoin correction fast tracked wave 2 down and we came to test 220ish sats. We then bounced from there out of a falling wedge for a little sideways action and bounced again to create a new higher low and establish a legitimate trend line with 3 solid points to use as a guide.
Now, consider major resistances. Look back at the first cycle and then look at the ATH of wave 1 of this current cycle and compare the two. There is strong resistance at 830 sats. If Bitcoin truly has found a bottom here, then I do expect alts to recover significantly alongside BTC, with DGB being one of the major benefactors and I believe FOMO will help drive the price beyond that resistance to roughly 970 sats, slightly before a 1000 sats where whales will begin to dump. I believe this will coincide with another summer correction for Bitcoin as well as alts and DGB will start the corrective 4 Elliot wave.
During late summer/early fall people will probably claim crypto is dead, that the spring/early summer run up was a bull trap, and that Bitcoin is going back to the basement. "See, I told you! Bitcoin is going back to 3k, maybe lower!" they will say. I'd say don't believe them. Although it is a possibility, it does not have a high probability.
Once the summer correction finally passes, the fall/winter will begin the real yearly movement for Bitcoin and alts, where everyone who held strong and believed in crypto will be rewarded with major gains. Now is just the time to be patient. If you are relying solely on other peoples TA's to make trades, my advice is to hold through the summer until the end of the year and then sell into the extended 5th wave while everything is going parabolic.
That's the way I see it. Of course, this could change at a drop of the hat, but I think it is important to keep a level head each day and reassess as you move forward. Good luck to everyone!
The way I am seeing things currently:
We found our bottom at 80ish sats and started the first Elliot wave up. The Bitcoin correction fast tracked wave 2 down and we came to test 220ish sats. We then bounced from there out of a falling wedge for a little sideways action and bounced again to create a new higher low and establish a legitimate trend line with 3 solid points to use as a guide.
Now, consider major resistances. Look back at the first cycle and then look at the ATH of wave 1 of this current cycle and compare the two. There is strong resistance at 830 sats. If Bitcoin truly has found a bottom here, then I do expect alts to recover significantly alongside BTC, with DGB being one of the major benefactors and I believe FOMO will help drive the price beyond that resistance to roughly 970 sats, slightly before a 1000 sats where whales will begin to dump. I believe this will coincide with another summer correction for Bitcoin as well as alts and DGB will start the corrective 4 Elliot wave.
During late summer/early fall people will probably claim crypto is dead, that the spring/early summer run up was a bull trap, and that Bitcoin is going back to the basement. "See, I told you! Bitcoin is going back to 3k, maybe lower!" they will say. I'd say don't believe them. Although it is a possibility, it does not have a high probability.
Once the summer correction finally passes, the fall/winter will begin the real yearly movement for Bitcoin and alts, where everyone who held strong and believed in crypto will be rewarded with major gains. Now is just the time to be patient. If you are relying solely on other peoples TA's to make trades, my advice is to hold through the summer until the end of the year and then sell into the extended 5th wave while everything is going parabolic.
That's the way I see it. Of course, this could change at a drop of the hat, but I think it is important to keep a level head each day and reassess as you move forward. Good luck to everyone!
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