Stagflation is coming

2022年8月26日

Real interest rates will probably start to fall soon because of stagflation.

Real interest rates can be measured by subtracting inflation expectations T10YIE from US treasury yields DGS10 .


Treasury yields will likely fall along with unemployment as measured by initial claims ICSA.

Initials claims has started to slowly rise and when it does treasury yields will probably go down.


Inflation expectations will likely take longer to fall because it takes longer to get prices to slow down than for unemployment to rise.

Businesses will more likely fire people than lower their prices to protect their profits and now inflation expectations are probably well anchored.


This should be bullish for silver XAGUSD and gold XAUUSD and negative for the dollar DXY.

When looking at the charts for primary metals and DXY it also looks like they are ready for a major turnaround.

A description of the above can also be found here:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2022/06/28/stagflation-causes-and-when-it-will-come/