Dow Jones Bearish Scenario

2018年12月30日

US stocks are looking pretty bearish. The key yearly support at around 23300 (green box) was broken, and I think we still have a ways down to go. I think there will most likely be a bearish retest on that yearly support, where we will get denied and continue our descent downwards. There is the possibility (slim possibility) that we somehow break upwards now and close back above the key support, in which case this idea will be invalidated. With that being said, I think we will most likely descend down to our next strongest support which is around the 17000-18000 area. This would be a decline of about 33%, as compared to the 54% decline of the 2008 stock market crash. I think this is a very realistic possibility, but only time will tell.

Let me know what you think!