US 30 in Three Drives within Converging Pennant: ATH Soon?

2019年7月9日

Had a Fib convergence on 10/08. If index holds this level expect turn to higher price leading up to FOMC. 0.25 rate cut is already baked in. Not betting on this one.

IMO index is approaching the ATH and Bear market to follow. This pennant points at 23 July next convergence. Too soon to short IMO; watch, wait, go to the beach!

Trade at your own risk. I'm out on this; watching/waiting in cash. GLTA!

2019年7月11日

注释

27072 today; shorted DIA in Sep 270 puts.

2019年7月14日

交易开始

Rolled the 270s up to 272s, bought some 273s. Buying the SPY 300s and picked up QQQ 193s, all August/September contracts. I hedge these bets with diagonal short daily puts, trims the paper losses and I reinvest the gains from shorts into moar puts. I don't buy 60 day contracts to hold till expiration; their value is more stable and you can hold or trade them for several weeks before the time value starts to leak out. SPY contracts have dailies on M/W/F 3x a week so you can short repeatedly against your long puts to offset drawdown if you short early. DIA and QQQ only trade Friday weeklies; sell them on Weds to minimize squeeze. I don't like to carry short puts into Mondays as price often gaps down and you give up gains if the spread is open (but you never lose real $, long puts always worth more than short dailies).

Channel intersects the long upper TL in megaphone at 27400. Expect to see it Monday. Stay the course; double down. It will sell before FOMC as anxiety about Fed policy will resurface; then it will probably bull again into August. A Fib time convergence ocurrs on 23 July; then 19 August; and 3 September. Might well give a new higher ATH in September; or just make a double top at the same price.