J-Streak

Head Shoulder Ratio: Worst-Case Scenario? Let's Hope So (Part 1)

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DJ:DJI   道琼斯工业平均指数
So I have been tracking this pretty extensively, just haven't posted my findings (which up to this point have been spot on) until now... Why? Because this is such a far fetched scenario, I feel in the rare event this does happen - if I don't have some kind of proof that I caught it before-hand no one will believe me lol... Now, this is part 1 which is the weekly chart... The weekly shows a big nasty bearish engulfing candle, which means these last 2 weeks were simply a giant bear flag... I am expected the next trendline to be tested next, possibly another bear flag, and the testing the trend line at the bottom... Why that specific spot? Well that's where it gets interesting... The peak of the market formed a head and shoulders pattern which was abruptly followed by a very nasty spill... This current bear flag looks to be setting up a very similar head and shoulders as well... So, just playing around, I measured the top HnS from low to high, then did the same with the current pattern (actually the low from March 1st) to get a size ratio... I then took this ratio, measured the 1st fall (to the lowest low, not the 1st low) and applied it to see where it would show another possible fall based on the size of the bigger pattern... Well, to my surprise it landed square on top of the 2015/2016 market correction - which is a very likely support area if it were to fall... Not only that, but it is also right where a major trend line from the bottom of the last bear market in 2009 is sitting at... Is this a coincidence? If so, it's a pretty big one lol... Even with the current low on March 2nd we are still placed right there in the same general support area... I think Monday will see a pop and fade before the reversal and what I expect to be a monster plunge to 22k... So needless to say - I will definitely be purchasing put options into the spike of the right shoulder...
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