DJI Future Map - A Correction is Imminent

2019年12月19日

DJI has been on an absolutely MASSIVE bull run since the collapse back in 2008-2009; a decade ago!
We all know what goes up must come down though and the DJI is due for another +50% correction.
This chart is on the Weekly. I usually prefer using the Day charts however I noticed some interesting trends that I hoped to share.

2008-2009
-The correction in 2008 was 55% from top to bottom
-The RSI at the peak was slightly Overbought so a little surprised the price tanked -7784 points


2016-2018

-The 1.618 ratio (19008) took 8 years to be hit
-The 2.618 ratio (26793) took 1 year, 2016-2017
-The RSI at the 2.618 level was 95 – Super Overbought which made sense to see the beginning of a huge correction however that wasn’t the case. A double top formed at the same level and then -
the price corrected roughly -5000 points, -18-20% towards the end of 2018-2019
-This correction pinged off possibly the 1.702-1.786 level (21712) from the first FIB (08-09)
-The RSI was once again just slightly Overbought at 70-72 level
-Price has continued to climb due to various political measures; volatility between Trump and China (Tariffs) as well as the beginning of the Impeachment talk
-The FED also injecting the ‘NOT QE’ funds into the REPO arena has stimulated the economy as well
-The current RSI is at 67 so it’s getting once again very close to those Overbought levels that haven’t been met since a year ago when the correction occurred
-Trump officially Impeached on December 18th and the DJI keeps pumping

Beyond

I can’t predict the future but based on my FIB mapping, I’m expecting the possibility of a massive recession/depression type correction to be made when the 3.618 (34577) level is met. This is based on the FIB calculation from 2008-2009.
The current movements are lining up quite nicely with this FIB chart and the new FIB chart if calculated from the future ‘top’ indicates that we will see a re-tracement to the 0.618 (26627) level and in my opinion ultimately back down to the 1.618 (13761) level where I believe a good amount of resistance will be met. This is a negative 60% drop!
In the event 2.618 (896) level is met (worse than a Depression) that’s a negative 96% dump. I dunno if this will happen, but my guess is that we'll see this drop in-between 2021-2022.

2019年12月19日

注释

NOTE: I made a mistake by putting a price bubble of 17600, it should read 13761. Apologies.