My vertex hypothesis states that before major trend changes, the vertices on their respective parabolas will be generated on their moving average parabolas (minimum or maximum points in which the slope of the tangent line is zero). A common metric for bearish vs bullish market cycles is the price action being below or above the 200 daily moving average, respectively.
In the above chart, the DOW, for the first time in a long time, is showing its 200DMA as declining, similar to drops in 2008, for example. Prices remain below the 200DMA -- indicating the beginning of a bear cycle -- and if the 200DMA is not taken back, we could see drops to the Fibonacci retracement levels of $13.8k and $12.4k.
In the above chart, the DOW, for the first time in a long time, is showing its 200DMA as declining, similar to drops in 2008, for example. Prices remain below the 200DMA -- indicating the beginning of a bear cycle -- and if the 200DMA is not taken back, we could see drops to the Fibonacci retracement levels of $13.8k and $12.4k.