WHITHER DJIA?! MOON SHOT OR FISH TANK!?! COMPARE TO MAY CHANNEL
After Tuesday's short squeeze a lot of us got stopped out and irritated bears are wondering; "WTH is it DOING?!"
After I calmed down a bit, licked my wounds and smoothed out my fur, took a hard look at the chart. Then shorted again today.
Pattern now unfolding looks a heckofalot like May's behavior after the runup three months back. Now Tues looks like a BullTrap and yet another fakeout squeeze.
Notice the same 'double-top' action, short-squeeze after first downtrend fakeout, then a descending triangle leading to the sheer drop.
Significantly, May's pullback was 0.50 Fibo only and did not test the channel bottom. That came later, in the June Swoon.
Elliot wave theory 'alternating wave hypothesis' suggests that a shallow wave is followed by a deep strong trough, in turn by a shallow wave.
Maybe bullhockey, but after the strong cup-and-handle breakout in July I wouldn't bet on a really steep/deep decline. Could happen but...?! Possibly a .382 Fibo = 25020.
Strong support now at the former resistance level could springboard the index up to next bullish impulse, note horizontal arrow > support tested, retested in cuphandle.
If S1 breaks: S2 at 24844 (Fibo 0.50); S3 at 24668 (Fibo 0.618; tested in the cup); S4 at 24418 (Fibo 0.786, bottom of the cup), which lands squarely on the lower trendline.
Notice: Height of triangle in May = depth of drop; if we get that again in August, Dow might retrace to 0.382 Fibo and bounce. Don't get squeezed- watch it real close...
Also noteworthy: one page contributor has observed the market highs/lows have coincided with Moon phases - high 24585 was at Full Moon 07/26/18; look for a low around the New Moon on Friday, 10 August, eh?! Maybe silly but there it is... <Wink>
Test of bottom trendline would be a long drop, and seems unlikely now, but the damned thing has already done the impossible, so don't count it out.
Other similarities suggesting imminent corrective wave: 'exhaustion gap' up on Tues followed by rapid retracement; a 'shooting star' Weds attempt to recover to Tues HOD but fell short at 25480, rejection leading to strong selloff end of day; low volume on up days, increasing volume on down days; RSI: Neutral. August is tied for weakest month of year with October. BUT August is also often a 'pivot month' in which the trend reverses. SO; whither Dow? Maybe a little off the top please, then resume the Moon shot...
Good luck traders!
> "Going to the Moon... after a brief detour through Pandemonium and Nether Regions"
After I calmed down a bit, licked my wounds and smoothed out my fur, took a hard look at the chart. Then shorted again today.
Pattern now unfolding looks a heckofalot like May's behavior after the runup three months back. Now Tues looks like a BullTrap and yet another fakeout squeeze.
Notice the same 'double-top' action, short-squeeze after first downtrend fakeout, then a descending triangle leading to the sheer drop.
Significantly, May's pullback was 0.50 Fibo only and did not test the channel bottom. That came later, in the June Swoon.
Elliot wave theory 'alternating wave hypothesis' suggests that a shallow wave is followed by a deep strong trough, in turn by a shallow wave.
Maybe bullhockey, but after the strong cup-and-handle breakout in July I wouldn't bet on a really steep/deep decline. Could happen but...?! Possibly a .382 Fibo = 25020.
Strong support now at the former resistance level could springboard the index up to next bullish impulse, note horizontal arrow > support tested, retested in cuphandle.
If S1 breaks: S2 at 24844 (Fibo 0.50); S3 at 24668 (Fibo 0.618; tested in the cup); S4 at 24418 (Fibo 0.786, bottom of the cup), which lands squarely on the lower trendline.
Notice: Height of triangle in May = depth of drop; if we get that again in August, Dow might retrace to 0.382 Fibo and bounce. Don't get squeezed- watch it real close...
Also noteworthy: one page contributor has observed the market highs/lows have coincided with Moon phases - high 24585 was at Full Moon 07/26/18; look for a low around the New Moon on Friday, 10 August, eh?! Maybe silly but there it is... <Wink>
Test of bottom trendline would be a long drop, and seems unlikely now, but the damned thing has already done the impossible, so don't count it out.
Other similarities suggesting imminent corrective wave: 'exhaustion gap' up on Tues followed by rapid retracement; a 'shooting star' Weds attempt to recover to Tues HOD but fell short at 25480, rejection leading to strong selloff end of day; low volume on up days, increasing volume on down days; RSI: Neutral. August is tied for weakest month of year with October. BUT August is also often a 'pivot month' in which the trend reverses. SO; whither Dow? Maybe a little off the top please, then resume the Moon shot...
Good luck traders!
> "Going to the Moon... after a brief detour through Pandemonium and Nether Regions"
交易开始:
This idea was a bit early but I'm sticking to it see my updated ideas, Good luck!