Another 48h - It Was A Magnificent Week For Bears In The DXY

2024/11/29
Another 48h - It Was A Magnificent Week For Bears In The DXY
“last week was the second strongest red bearish trend this year 2024!
an even longer one started at this level in the summer? this time too?”



107.348 : 2023/10/03 - Annual Year High 2023
106.517 : 2024/04/16 - Annual Year High 2024
106.490 : 2024/05/01 - 1st False Breakout To New High
106,130 : 2024/06/26 - 2nd False Breakout To New High
105.782 : 2024/11/29 - last price action
104.799 : 2024/07/30 - High Before W Trend Reversal Formation
104.447 : 2024/08/01 - W Trend Reversal Formation Upper Line
103.650 : 2024/07/17 - Low Before W Trend Reversal Formation
In addition to the annual highs in 2023 and/or 2024, inclusive the breakout from the w trend reversal formation, two downward trend lines from the annual high in 2024 are also interesting. Because the price action above proves the fundamentally positive bullish upward trend in the DXY . And/Or even the breakout of the downfall trend from the first both annual year highs 2024. While a downfall around the two downward trend lines from the bears, between 106.5 and/or even 106 points, in retrospect we must have to speak of a short-term false breakout of new annual highs in 2024. And that even happened last week. From this point of view I expect US bulls & US Bears to trade and/or invest in the terrain between the both downside trends, more or less, until the end of this year 2024 - i.e. between more or less 106 & 105 points. Nevertheless, I remain more bullish than bearish for the DXY as long as the price action is above the w trend reversal formation. EURUSD is quite weak - totally damaged in terms of fiscal policy and economic policy. But the Japanese yen may strengthen as inflation in Japan did not come down as much as most expected. Which is why I closed our long USDJPY 4XSetUp with a loss at the Friday closing price on November 29, 2024.

• Who Will Takin` Over The Terrain Between The Annual Highs?
  

This was the learning question of last week. And we have to say very clearly: "It was the bears!" Because on all 5 trading days of last week the bears recaptured the current territory in the DXY . Whether this is a medium-term trend reversal for the coming days, even weeks? Or was it just a week of consolidation to continue rising? That remains to be seen.

“Markets are constantly in a state of uncertainty and flux and money is made by discounting the obvious and betting on the unexpected.”
George Soros

• Will the bulls recapture the terrain above 106.517 points again?
  
• Will the bears recapture the terrain under 104.447 points again?
  

The price action between 107.348 points (Annual Year High 2023 from 2023/10/03) and/or 106.517 points (1st Annual Year High 2024 from 2024/04/16) are groundbreaking. Last week the bears took over. Pathbreaking for this week, maybe even by the end of the year, after DXY closed at 105.782 points last weekend, are the first annual high of 2024 and/or the upper trend line of the w trend reversal formation with 104.447 points from 2024/08/01. Because a price action above would give the US bulls confirmation that the rally from the annual low in 2024 to more or less new annual highs in 2024 and/or 2023 is continuing. While a price action back below into the w trend reversal formation should please the US bears again. And we must have to argue that all the price action of the last few days, the last few weeks, since the end of September 2024, is in danger of running out of steam. And we would have to assume a lower DXY .


This week is tough again - a lot of important information such as ISM Manufacturing PMI on Monday and/or even ISM Services PMI on Wednesday are likely to have an influence on the price action. At least within 48 hours (24 hours before and or even 24 hours later). What is crucial, however, is the US unemployment rate on friday for the coming days and/or weeks, as will the subsequent Michigan Consumer Sentiment.


With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron



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