We may now be in the final phase of the harmonic butterfly, which is a retracement to the 0.5 - 0.618 fib area of CD for an initial motive down wave.
Since my last DXY idea, direction was as expected but more volatility than predicted. We made a higher low then continued on the ping the 0.5 retracement of the macro wave. Consequently, this led to concluding the harmonic butterfly shown.
We have a potential double top pending on Monday's closure (on a daily timeframe, would be TONIGHT'S closure), with near term confirmation on a breakdown of 95.5. The traditional target for this pattern is the 1.618 of the CD wave. If this harmonic were to be validated by a breakdown, we should expect an impulse move down to at least the 0.382 area, if not the 0.5 - 0.618.
As noted in the top right corner, this time of the year typically brings a bearish stance on the dollar. The forecast that I have mapped out takes into account dollar seasonality, however assumes that the trend stays bearish for the entirety of next year. It is merely a technical playout of the "perfect scenario".
This is not financial advice and always DYOR.
Since my last DXY idea, direction was as expected but more volatility than predicted. We made a higher low then continued on the ping the 0.5 retracement of the macro wave. Consequently, this led to concluding the harmonic butterfly shown.
We have a potential double top pending on Monday's closure (on a daily timeframe, would be TONIGHT'S closure), with near term confirmation on a breakdown of 95.5. The traditional target for this pattern is the 1.618 of the CD wave. If this harmonic were to be validated by a breakdown, we should expect an impulse move down to at least the 0.382 area, if not the 0.5 - 0.618.
As noted in the top right corner, this time of the year typically brings a bearish stance on the dollar. The forecast that I have mapped out takes into account dollar seasonality, however assumes that the trend stays bearish for the entirety of next year. It is merely a technical playout of the "perfect scenario".
This is not financial advice and always DYOR.
评论:
A daily timeframe perspective:
