Open EEM skewed IronCondor/capped lizard Mar16
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/OsBXckpZ/
Caught my notice as one of many stocks that popped back to begin filling yesterday's gap. The longer term trend is up.
Schaff Trend Cycle (bottom panel indicator - this is a modification of LazyBear's @LazyBear, customized line color for up/down direction and background color for Elder Ray EFI grn/red above below zero and dark green/red rising or falling) anyhow this shows cycle down from drop but background shows bounce and continuance of uptrend (to me).
Options are liquid so little cost to getting in and out of the position.
Cost: 78 credit/contract
Max P/L 78/222 upside minimum 28 profit, no loss
Spot when opened 51.11
IV rank percentile 99
Theta .44
Delta 15.9
POP: probability of making .01 or more on the trade 69%
Profit target 25. The bet here is that EEM will continue to rise, that the high IV will collapse decreasing debit/increasing profit to close the position. If it does this quickly I will grab the money and remove the risk quickly. If it drifts up, Theta decay and price will improve the position. It has some room to drift down and minimum movement would keep it in the higher profit zone (between the short strikes). This is more of a directional trade with a defined max loss so if it goes against me quickly to max loss there will be nothing to lose in waiting for it to come back. If it charges down to breakeven I will review my sentiment and if I think it has whiplashed on me to reverse down again I may close it near scratch.
So I posted the trade and now am "hung by the tongue" in that we will all see if this is profitable or not. Fun!
Caught my notice as one of many stocks that popped back to begin filling yesterday's gap. The longer term trend is up.
Schaff Trend Cycle (bottom panel indicator - this is a modification of LazyBear's @LazyBear, customized line color for up/down direction and background color for Elder Ray EFI grn/red above below zero and dark green/red rising or falling) anyhow this shows cycle down from drop but background shows bounce and continuance of uptrend (to me).
Options are liquid so little cost to getting in and out of the position.
Cost: 78 credit/contract
Max P/L 78/222 upside minimum 28 profit, no loss
Spot when opened 51.11
IV rank percentile 99
Theta .44
Delta 15.9
POP: probability of making .01 or more on the trade 69%
Profit target 25. The bet here is that EEM will continue to rise, that the high IV will collapse decreasing debit/increasing profit to close the position. If it does this quickly I will grab the money and remove the risk quickly. If it drifts up, Theta decay and price will improve the position. It has some room to drift down and minimum movement would keep it in the higher profit zone (between the short strikes). This is more of a directional trade with a defined max loss so if it goes against me quickly to max loss there will be nothing to lose in waiting for it to come back. If it charges down to breakeven I will review my sentiment and if I think it has whiplashed on me to reverse down again I may close it near scratch.
So I posted the trade and now am "hung by the tongue" in that we will all see if this is profitable or not. Fun!
交易手动结束:
This type of trade can blast up on the no loss side and be boring with a small profit or as in this case it hung around just outside of the risk side break even; in other words it sat on the line between the highest loss and the highest gain (keeps your attention). At one week from expiration took the opportunity to close this for a scratch.