Although Enphase is an excellent inverter company for solar panels, and has treated its investors to a 420% year to date increase in value, I am feeling that CNN Business's analysis is too optimistic:
"The 10 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Enphase Energy Inc have a median target of 30.00, with a high estimate of 40.00 and a low estimate of 26.00. The median estimate represents a +21.85% increase from the last price of 24.62."
Solar panel companies have a tremendous amount of competition and also failure rate when we look at them historically. Due to the consistent innovation and subsequent outdating of previous technology, it is possible that a company like Enphase could be completely off the trading market within a decade. Yes, it could even happen in the next 12 months. I would not invest into this company if I wanted to sell within 6-12 months.
Do I think this stock is going to go under in the next 12 months? No, but I also don't think that it could hit a median of $30 within the next year.
Let the technology, market, and consumers play it out for the next 5 years and we will see this stock increase from $24.62 to over $35.
I have 70% confidence in this analysis. I am holding Enphase and PLUG to diversify into the energy sector.
"The 10 analysts offering 12-month price forecasts for Enphase Energy Inc have a median target of 30.00, with a high estimate of 40.00 and a low estimate of 26.00. The median estimate represents a +21.85% increase from the last price of 24.62."
Solar panel companies have a tremendous amount of competition and also failure rate when we look at them historically. Due to the consistent innovation and subsequent outdating of previous technology, it is possible that a company like Enphase could be completely off the trading market within a decade. Yes, it could even happen in the next 12 months. I would not invest into this company if I wanted to sell within 6-12 months.
Do I think this stock is going to go under in the next 12 months? No, but I also don't think that it could hit a median of $30 within the next year.
Let the technology, market, and consumers play it out for the next 5 years and we will see this stock increase from $24.62 to over $35.
I have 70% confidence in this analysis. I am holding Enphase and PLUG to diversify into the energy sector.
评论:
Please note that this trend line should start in 2021. I have no idea what this stock's price will look like over the next 12 months.
