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ES1!: Ascending Triangle, Kursziel 2.845 Punkte

已更新

Definition Ascending Triangle:

An ascending triangle is a bullish chart pattern used in technical analysis that is easily recognizable by the right triangle created by two trend lines. In an ascending triangle, one trend line is drawn horizontally at a level that has historically prevented the price from heading higher, while the second trend line connects a series of increasing troughs. Traders enter into long positions when the price breaks out from the horizontal trend line. Quelle: ( investopedia.com/terms/a/ascendingtriangle.asp )

Gemäss Definition wird das Kaufsignal generiert, sobald der Ausbruch erfolgt. Aktuell gibt es starke Indizien dafür, dass ein Ausbruch unmittelbar nach oben bevorsteht. Interessant ist dabei, was den Kursverlauf zuvor (steigende Kurse in immer engeren Schwankungen) verursacht hat. Daraus wiederum lässt sich die Wahrscheinlichkeit ableiten, ob es einen Ausbruch zur Oberseite geben wird.

Die Gründe für die Seitwärtsbewegung der SPX Futures respektive des S&P-500-Index innerhalb eines völlig intakten Aufwärtstendes seit Anfang der Woche (15. Januar 2018):

US shutdown: Senate bill on verge of collapse amid rancour Quelle: bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-42749423

Aktuelle Entwicklung:

Schumer slams Cotton, in face-to-face with Trump politico.com/story/2018/01/18/schumer-slams-cotton-trump-meeting-346280
White House slams Democrats, preps for shutdown edition.cnn.com/2018/01/19/politics/white-house-shutdown/index.html
Chuck Schumer says he made 'some progress' in meeting with Trump, but no deal yet on avoiding shutdown cnbc.com/2018/01/19/chuck-schumer-is-going-to-the-white-house-to-talk-to-trump-about-the-shutdown-nbc-news.html

Die US-Aktienmärkte werden am Montag auf die aktuelle Entwicklung reagieren. Kommt es über das Wochenende zu einer Einigung zwischen Demokraten, Republikanern und US Präsident Trump, wird es mit sehr hoher Wahrscheinlichkeit einen Ausbruch nach oben geben.

Interessant ist, dass zeitgleich auch die Europäischen Aktienmärkte an einer (exakt) vergleichbaren Stelle stehen:

DAX: "Hidden" Cup & Handle Pattern, Kursziel 14.000 Punkte

Über das Wochenende werden synchron in den USA und in Europa zwei wichtige politische Entscheidungen getroffen. Sollten beide postiv ausgehen werden die Aktienmärkte mit neuen All Time Highs in die Woche starten. Den Anfang sollten noch in der Nacht von Sonntag auf Montag die asiatischen Märkte machen. Auch hier zeigt der Nikkei-225-Index eine vergleichbare Situation wie SPX/SPY und DAX:

Nikkei-225-Index startet die Weihnachtsrally 2017

Das erste Kursziel liegt bei 2.845 Punkten und sollte bei einem break zur up side sehr schnell erreicht werden.

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Break Out. Vor den endgültigen Entscheidungen in den USA und Deutschland allerdings ohne jede Relevanz.

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Break Out. Gemäss CNBC sind die Chancen auf einen "Deal" in den letzten beiden Stunden anscheinend gestiegen.

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MONEY FLOW:
Investor 'fear of missing out' runs wild as record amount of money flows into stocks the last four weeks.
Stock-based mutual funds and ETFs pulled in $58 billion in the past four weeks, the fastest surge ever.
The rush of cash is inspired by a "fear of missing out," says BAML's Michael Hartnett.
The market has been on a tear during the period, with the S&P 500 up 4 percent over the span and off to one of its fastest-ever starts to a calendar year.
cnbc.com/2018/01/19/fear-of-missing-out-peaks-as-mutual-fund-and-etfs-flows-hit-record.html

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GEOPOLITICS, USA, GOVERNMENT SHUT DOWN
January 20 at 6:55 PM
BREAKING: McConnell schedules early Monday vote to reopen government

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) announced plans for a vote at 1 a.m. Monday on a bill to fund the government through Feb. 8. The move appeared designed to force Democrats to either agree to reopen the government without concessions on immigration and other issues, or to vote again for a government shutdown, which Republicans believe will hurt Democrats. The government shut down early Saturday morning after a four-week spending bill failed to gain enough votes to advance in the Senate.
washingtonpost.com/powerpost/government-shuts-down-after-senate-bill-collapses-negotiations-fail/2018/01/20/dca0d7e0-fda6-11e7-8f66-2df0b94bb98a_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-banner-main_shutdown0121-753am:homepage/story&utm_term=.2cef50b641a2

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GEOPOLITICS, USA, GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN: Anreise von Trump nach Davos erfolgt Donnerstag. Trump rechnet anscheinend damit, dass bis dahin zumindest eine Übergangsfinanzierung gesichert ist.

Zitat: "Diverse Black-Hawk-Helis sind schon da, Transportflugzeuge der US-Air-Force ebenso. Am Sonntagmorgen hat nun die nächste Maschine die Schweiz erreicht: Die Lockheed C-5M Galaxy ist um 8.15 Uhr am Flughafen Zürich gelandet."
20min.ch/schweiz/zuerich/story/US-Riesenvogel-in-Duebendorf-gelandet-17905214

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The Senate will gavel into session at 1 p.m. McConnell has vowed to take up a new spending plan by Monday morning, or sooner, that would fund the government through Feb. 8.
washingtonpost.com/powerpost/trump-launches-new-round-of-partisan-attacks-as-government-shutdown-hits-day-2/2018/01/21/0560aece-fe35-11e7-a46b-a3614530bd87_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_shutdown0122-desktoptablet:homepage/story&utm_term=.d22e0bf7df8a

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GEOPOLITIC, USA, GOVERNMENT SHUT DOWN:

Government shutdown, day 2:

Signs of progress emerge
As the government shutdown hits its second day, Republicans are getting behind a plan to keep the government funded through Feb. 8.
A group of bipartisan senators is reportedly getting set to take a proposal to end the impasse to party leaders on Sunday.
ome Democrats are ready to give immigration concessions to Republicans, including President Trump's proposed border wall.
cnbc.com/2018/01/21/government-shutdown-news-congress-trump-appear-to-make-progress.html

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GEOPOLITICS, USA, GOVERNMENT SHUT DOWN:

House speaker adds pressure on Senate to accept spending bill and end standoff
President Trump wants the Senate to change its rules so a simple majority can pass a deal, and House Speaker Paul Ryan said the House is ready to accept a bill to fund the government through Feb. 8.
Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said, “This shutdown is gonna get a lot worse tomorrow.” He has vowed to take up a new spending plan by 1 a.m. Monday and urged Democrats to allow a vote earlier.
washingtonpost.com/powerpost/trump-launches-new-round-of-partisan-attacks-as-government-shutdown-hits-day-2/2018/01/21/0560aece-fe35-11e7-a46b-a3614530bd87_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_shutdown0122-desktoptablet:homepage/story&utm_term=.a49266656a0c

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GEOPOLITICS, USA, GOVERNMENT SHUT DOWN

Moderate senators race to strike a deal to end government shutdown

Centrist senators racing to strike a deal to end the government shutdown expressed optimism Sunday that they were close to an agreement — but it was unclear whether they would be able to secure the support of leadership to end the impasse.

With the start of the workweek for many federal employees only hours away, a bipartisan group of moderate senators tried for an accord on immigration and federal spending they hoped would pave the way to reopening the government by Monday morning.
After meetings with each other as well as with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.), there were no immediate signs of a major breakthrough. McConnell and Schumer also spoke with each other off the Senate floor Sunday afternoon.
Sen. John Cornyn (R-Tex.), McConnell’s top deputy, sounded a pessimistic note early Sunday evening, predicting the government would remain shut down on Monday. “Right now yeah, yeah I do” think so, he said.
washingtonpost.com/powerpost/trump-launches-new-round-of-partisan-attacks-as-government-shutdown-hits-day-2/2018/01/21/0560aece-fe35-11e7-a46b-a3614530bd87_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-banner-main_shutdown0122-822am:homepage/story&utm_term=.b05c9906b

注释

GEOPOLITICS, USA, GOVERNMENT SHUT DOWN

GEOPOLITICS, USA, GOVERNMENT SHUT DOWN:

"No vote tonight": The key procedural vote on advancing the continuing resolution for February 8th will now be held at noon tomorrow.
edition.cnn.com/2018/01/21/politics/government-shutdown-latest/index.html

注释

ES @ 2.822 - trotz Government Shut Down in den USA

注释

KEYVOTE TO REOPEN GOVERNMENT CLEARS SENATE BY 81 - 18

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Rising Momentum after break to the upside:

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Target almost reached

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Senators strike a deal to end government shutdown
Senators have reached a short-term compromise deal to fund the government.
Democrats have the assurances they need on immigration and budget issues, Sen. Mark Warner says. cnbc.com/2018/01/22/government-shutdown-news-senators-reach-deal-to-end-shutdown.html

Wall St. hits record highs after deal to end U.S. shutdown
Wall Street's main indexes hit record closing highs on Monday in the wake of a deal by U.S. senators to end the federal government shutdown.
Based on the latest available data, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) rose 142.95 points, or 0.55 percent, to 26,214.67, the S&P 500 (SPX) gained 22.68 points, or 0.81 percent, to 2,832.98 and the Nasdaq Composite (IXIC) added 71.65 points, or 0.98 percent, to 7,408.03. investing.com/news/stock-market-news/stock-futures-slightly-lower-as-us-shutdown-enters-third-day-1133067

注释

ES @ 2.840, Target almost reached

GEOPOLITICS, US GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN, MARKETS:

Asia stocks rise as U.S. government shutdown ends, dollar/yen inches down

Asia stocks advanced on Tuesday after U.S. senators struck a deal to end a three-day government shutdown, sending Wall Street's main indexes to record highs, while the dollar inched down against the yen after the Bank of Japan kept policy steady.
U.S. lawmakers passed a short-term measure on Monday to fund the federal government through Feb. 8.
MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan (MIAPJ0000PUS) rose 0.7 percent to a fresh record peak.
Australian stocks (AXJO) climbed 0.7 percent and South Korea's KOSPI (KS11) added 1 percent. Japan's Nikkei (N225) was 1.1 percent higher.
World equity markets have been on a tear over the past year, buoyed by a synchronised uptick in global economic growth in a boon to corporate profits and stock valuations.
The brief U.S. government shutdown put only a minor dent to equities, with Wall Street rallying to record highs overnight following the deal to end the impasse in Washington. (N)
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/asia-stocks-rise-as-end-to-us-government-shutdown-buoys-wall-st-dollar-steady-1136776

交易结束：到达目标

ES @ 2.842. Trade closed. Target of 2.845 allmost reached. To close any trade isn´t any prediction about the further direction. Trade is closed to have not to many trading ideas open here on tradingview.com. Each trading idea needs time to follow up and to cover.

Net gain of 30 points or 300 pips.