ES (SPX, SPY) Analysis, Levels, Setups for Tue (Dec 2nd)

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The market structure remains optimistic on the higher timeframes, bolstered by a significant rebound from the 6,520 levels. Currently, prices are fluctuating in the upper range of this move, consolidating between the intraday support and the previous weekly high. Although momentum indicators are stretched, they have yet to indicate a reversal, suggesting a potential continuation toward resistance levels R1 and possibly R2, provided that buyers can uphold the nearest support zones. Conversely, a failure to maintain support at S1 and S2 could pave the way for a deeper corrective phase targeting S3.

The levels are remain the same from yesterday analysis.

A++ SETUP 1 - LONG FROM S2 RELOAD BAND (6,790-6,805)

look for an overnight or early NY flush into 6,800 ± 10 points, followed by a strong rejection: wick below S2 on 15m, close back inside the band, plus a higher low on 5m.

Entry zone: 6,800-6,795 (inside S2 once rejection shows).
Hard stop: 6,780 (below the lower edge of S2 and recent wick structure).
TP1: 6,845-6,855 (back through S1 into the middle of the current range).
TP2: 6,870-6,885 (R1 test).


A++ SETUP 2 - SHORT LIQUIDITY SWEEP INTO R1 (6,870-6,885)

during London or NY AM, price spikes through 6,870 into the 6,870-6,885 band, takes out prior highs, but then prints a rejection: 15m candle with an upper wick and close back below about 6,875, plus a lower high on 5m.

Entry zone: 6,875-6,880 after the rejection is confirmed, not on the first blind touch.
Hard stop: 6,895 (above the top of R1; acceptance above there suggests a push toward R2).
TP1: 6,835-6,840 (back into S1).
TP2: 6,800-6,795 (retest of S2).

Key Events and Data to Watch on Tuesday

Tomorrow's U.S. session will be pivotal, focusing on key indicators of manufacturing and construction. The final S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI will be released at 9:45 a.m. ET, followed closely by the ISM Manufacturing Index at 10:00 a.m. ET—both crucial for assessing factory activity and the momentum of economic growth. Concurrently, the Commerce Department will unveil October Construction Spending figures, a vital metric for understanding demand in infrastructure and housing sectors. Additionally, domestic vehicle sales data will be published, providing further insight into consumer strength.

Moreover, the OECD's latest Economic Outlook will present updated global growth projections, which could significantly influence market risk appetite. As markets remain attuned to indicators of decelerating economic activity, any surprises in these reports could lead to notable shifts between support levels (S2) and resistance levels (R1/R2), potentially reinforcing expectations for a rate cut from the Fed in December.

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