Locked and loaded on the sell-side ... Ride the pig

2019年7月15日

Here we can see the target for the 5th wave has been exceeded. Breaking the 3009.84 is diminishing confidence in the 'early bears'. It is important to remember the break is just a squeeze ahead of a very important Fed before markets break for Summer. The size of the break needs to be kept in context, it is not enough to warrant invalidation, plus the nature of the move is very 'wedge' like. Wedges are typically a sign in my experience of exhaustion in markets however we must be wary that a pullback from current levels will still be viewed by many as a healthy buying opportunity. Therefore remember to take some chips off the table and book profits as we approach the initial target areas.

To the other side, a more bullish outcome will imply that we are kickstarting another 5 wave sequence. It is very low odds as per today and even in this scenario the market will still need to pullback for the second wave in that sequence.

The first target here to the downside is 2,861...Best of luck those positioning for the end of the economic cycle.