Using linear regression at 400 bars on the daily, I plotted how long before the previous crash we stayed above the 1 standard deviation.
By my estimation, the durations seem about 2x as long this time around, which would mean we have a 20-day period below the line, and then a 36-day period above the line again before things start to really get ugly.
Based on this, my new date for devastation scenario beginning is 3-25-21, similar to previous estimates.
This would also mean the fall could be 2x as detrimental as we are all planning for…meaning 340, or 320, might not be the bottom.
=FIB
By my estimation, the durations seem about 2x as long this time around, which would mean we have a 20-day period below the line, and then a 36-day period above the line again before things start to really get ugly.
Based on this, my new date for devastation scenario beginning is 3-25-21, similar to previous estimates.
This would also mean the fall could be 2x as detrimental as we are all planning for…meaning 340, or 320, might not be the bottom.
=FIB
评论:
right on schedule indeed
The prediction is in...
= FIB
= FIB