7/20: Daily Recap, Outlook, and Trading Plan
Recap
For the first time in years, the market has seen two continuous trades without stop outs. Long 4420 on July 9th, with a trailing stop kicking me out last Friday at 4538 (trade 1, 113 points). Then this week, long 4533 on Monday, with trailing stop still going for 70 points, making these the best trades of 2023 by a very large margin.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Up a bit
🌎 US Index Futures: Mixed
🛢 Crude Oil: Up a bit
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Up
World Headline
Negative reaction to Telsa and Netflix putting pressure on investor optimism after a solid start to earnings season.
Key Structures
The success of these trades were due to simple, widely accessible technical analysis:
A 3 week ascending triangle which tested support last Wednesday, broke out Thursday, then ran to its measured move target.
A structure based trailing stop system that kept me in the trade.
Support Levels
Some core big picture structures and levels I am watching now (from highest to lowest) are 4588, 4532, 4493.
Resistance Levels
The large rising uptrend channel in white. This connects the March lows and the May lows is the primary medium term channel. Support is currently 4370 and the most immediate resistance line is 4617 now (with 5000+ being the upper rail and ultimate long-term magnet as long as the channel is play).
Trading Plan
My plan is to hold my 25% runner from this morning as it has not clipped 4613-14 next target up yet for a profit take. I am more cautious with longs now, sizing them smaller, as we are up in a strong resistance zone and these “elevated” conditions are my absolute least favorite to trade, with little comparison.
Wrap Up
While this phase of the trend will end with a multi-week period of complex chop and correction, it is important to remain focused on the core big picture structures and levels that drive the broad trend, and provide context and orientation to the daily price action. These are not meant to be “predictive” and I will be trading the levels in the below plan level to level, one move at a time.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
For the first time in years, the market has seen two continuous trades without stop outs. Long 4420 on July 9th, with a trailing stop kicking me out last Friday at 4538 (trade 1, 113 points). Then this week, long 4533 on Monday, with trailing stop still going for 70 points, making these the best trades of 2023 by a very large margin.
The Markets Overnight
🌏 Asia: Down
🌍 Europe: Up a bit
🌎 US Index Futures: Mixed
🛢 Crude Oil: Up a bit
💵 Dollar: Up slightly
🧐 Yields: Up
🔮 Crypto: Up
World Headline
Negative reaction to Telsa and Netflix putting pressure on investor optimism after a solid start to earnings season.
Key Structures
The success of these trades were due to simple, widely accessible technical analysis:
A 3 week ascending triangle which tested support last Wednesday, broke out Thursday, then ran to its measured move target.
A structure based trailing stop system that kept me in the trade.
Support Levels
Some core big picture structures and levels I am watching now (from highest to lowest) are 4588, 4532, 4493.
Resistance Levels
The large rising uptrend channel in white. This connects the March lows and the May lows is the primary medium term channel. Support is currently 4370 and the most immediate resistance line is 4617 now (with 5000+ being the upper rail and ultimate long-term magnet as long as the channel is play).
Trading Plan
My plan is to hold my 25% runner from this morning as it has not clipped 4613-14 next target up yet for a profit take. I am more cautious with longs now, sizing them smaller, as we are up in a strong resistance zone and these “elevated” conditions are my absolute least favorite to trade, with little comparison.
Wrap Up
While this phase of the trend will end with a multi-week period of complex chop and correction, it is important to remain focused on the core big picture structures and levels that drive the broad trend, and provide context and orientation to the daily price action. These are not meant to be “predictive” and I will be trading the levels in the below plan level to level, one move at a time.
Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
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